Leader of the Italian right-wing party Forza Italia Silvio Berlusconi

Comments 12

هل سوف تَعبُر إيطاليا الخط الغير ليبيرالي؟

Feb 28, 2018 Dominique Moisi

باريس - في عام 1841، أكمل الملحن الإيطالي جوزيبي فيردي قطعة الأوبرا المشهورة نابوكو. أغنيته الشهيرة "فا، بنسيرو"، الشهيرة تصف مصير العبرانيين في الصحراء، واستمرت لتصبح صرخة لحشد للوطنيين الإيطاليين من أجل التحرير من الإمبراطورية النمساوية.

في أداء قام به ريكاردو موتي في الأوبرا في روما في عام 2011، تم وضع نابوكو في خدمة الديمقراطية. وكان سيلفيو برلوسكوني، رئيس الوزراء آنذاك، حاضرا، لكن استيقظ في اليوم التالي لقراءة عناوين الصحف الإيطالية مثل "برلوسكوني الذي أطاح به فيردي". وبطبيعة الحال، سيكون من الصواب القول إن برلوسكوني، الذي أجبر على الاستقالة في وقت لاحق من ذلك العام، أطاح بنفسه، بسبب الفساد الشخصي والمالي.

ومع اقتراب إيطاليا من انتخابات برلمانية حاسمة في 4 مارس / آذار، فإن هذه الإشارات التاريخية مفيدة مرة أخرى. ولكن في حين أن الإيطاليين كانوا يحشدون ضد النمسا في عام 1841، قد يتجهون اليوم نحو "نموذج نمساوي" للحكم من نوع ائتلاف بين اليمين واليمين المتطرف. وبينما سقط بيرلسكونى من الحكم فى عام 2011، أصبح الآن منقذا محتملا. في سن 81، إنه يجسد إيطاليا مُسنة وساخرة. بعض الناخبين يعودون إليه عن قناعة. ويعود إليه آخرون لأنهم يخشون من أن البديل سيكون أسوأ من ذلك.

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Peter Schaeffer Mar 11, 2018

"An Austrian-style alliance between Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini’s Northern League would also bode ill, because it would put Italy at odds with the rest of the European Union’s founding members."

The solution is obvious. Have Merkel send the Germany army into Italy. Why not? It worked so well last time.
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Andrea Goldstein Mar 5, 2018

The results show that inequality of opportunities, real or perceived, drive the electorate and that the centre-left, in Italy possibly even more than elsewhere, is seen as the party of the spoiled establishment. In Milano, Turin or Bologna, the upper middle-class in city centres voted for the centre-left, while the lower middle-class in Southern Italy was fully behind the 5 Stars Movement. This is the crux of the matter, much more than the nature of the political regime.
- Peter Schaeffer Mar 11, 2018
  
  "and that the centre-left, in Italy possibly even more than elsewhere, is seen as the party of the spoiled establishment"
  
  As an American, I won't claim any real, in-depth knowledge of Italian politics. However, in the U.S., the center-left is the party of the spoiled establishment. Just look at who supported Hillary, and who threw a temper tantrum when she lost (other than her, that it). The upscale liberal establishment loved her. Of course, she got the racial identity politics vote. The rest of the American people were disgusted by her and voted from Trump.
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Tim Morgan Mar 3, 2018

Nature abhors a vacuum, and so does governance, but that is the situation, in Italy as elsewhere.

We all know that socialist collectivism failed spectacularly in the Soviet Union.

What we have yet to recognise, despite the growing weight of evidence, is that financialized corporatist capitalism has now failed, equally spectaularly, and on a much larger scale. 2008 was proof positive of this failure, and the system has been existing on the life-support of ultra-cheap money ever since.

There is a frightening paucity of alternatives to these failed ideologies. This is just the kind of vacuum in which extremists flourish.
- Peter Schaeffer Mar 11, 2018
  
  TM, I agree. However, the establishment still believes in the pre-2008 models (free trade, open borders, runaway financialization) in a way that puts Marxists to shame. They are never going to change. They may be overthrown via the ballot box however.
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Barry Rosenfeld Mar 3, 2018

In American football, most of the action takes place between the 30 yard lines, but this represents only 40% of the field. The extremes, the areas between the goal lines and the 30 yard lines, take up 60% of the field. Unless the action can encompass more of the field, the extremes will triumph in the end. {Notice the resemblance between triumph and Trump.]
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M M Mar 1, 2018

There is a say, "the devil you know is better than the devil you don't"!
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Roger Lewis Mar 1, 2018

''Russia, for its part, would welcome that outcome, and has probably been doing everything it can to bring it about.'' Intellectual money for old rope, yesterday's men writing yesterdays memes.
Smug elites have learned nothing from The Brexit or Trump votes this article is not alone in its abject bankruptcy of listening to very clear messages that neo-liberalism is not working.

''When they do wrong, it is their error, and not their crime. But with the governing part of the State it is far otherwise. They certainly may act ill by design, as well as by mistake. “Les révolutions qui arrivent dans les grands états ne sont point un effect du hasard, ni du caprice des peuples. Rien ne révolte les grands d’un royaume comme un Gouvernoment foible et dérangé. Pour la populace, ce n’est jamais par envie d’attaquer qu’elle se soulève, mais par impatience de souffrir.” These are the words of a great man, of a Minister of State, and a zealous assertor of Monarchy. They are applied to the system of favouritism which was adopted by Henry the Third of France, and to the dreadful consequences it produced. What he says of revolutions is equally true of all great disturbances. If this presumption in favour of the subjects against the trustees of power be not the more probable, I am sure it is the more comfortable speculation, because it is more easy to change an Administration than to reform a people.''
http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/03/on-present-discontents-burke-opined.html
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David Blair Feb 28, 2018

If I understand correctly, "illiberal" in this article means anyone who disagrees with the author, or perhaps the Eurocrats, regardless of the fact that they have won a democratic majority.
- Barry Rosenfeld Mar 3, 2018
  
  Correct, Mr. Blair. When the author uses the word "liberal" it means neoliberal. It means support of the bureaucratic, top-down, promotion of globalization, of finance capitalism.
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Paul Martin Feb 28, 2018

Your prefered scenario of an alliance between Matteo Renzi’s center-left Democratic Party and Berlusconi's Forza Italia would only result in a feeling of complete desperation among voters who would once for all consider that ''élections pièges à cons''. And the rejection of democracy would become general in Italian people and opinion. Italy would, this time really be ready for the return of the fascists, who would be viewed as liberators from chaos. ln other words, your best prefered scenario is actually the worst case scenario.
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stephan Edwards Feb 28, 2018

I would have to say, the so called "Illiberals" will do well perhaps very well in this election. The extremists sell well when the average person is desperate and in Italy many desperate into bloody red rage at a system that benefits the few and sodomizes the many. 1/3 unemployment in the under 30's and most of those that are employed under temporary contracts. The recovery, such it has been in Italy, Has Been Jobless, With no increase in employment people Do Not See It has a recovery. They merely see it has a lie. And from their prospective it is. For those that will say that the Voters have to see the big picture and vote for what's right "Morally" . Allow me to point out that people vote their prospective not what the people who are doing well under current system proclaim is "Morally" right.

The only positive scenario the author can come up with is "Business has Usual" The current prime minister staying in power. From the view of the losers that would be a indication the system is fixed and drive even more to the extremes under the basis (And you can view it has right or wrong) the government and the elections are fixed on behalf of the rich and connected. I'm not saying it is or isn't but from the view of a thirty year old still stuck at home with no prospect of a job beyond the temporary, No chance to own a home, and No Hope For The Future. It surely looks that way.

My own guess whatever happens the extremes will continue to grow. The Center Parties obviously don't give a solitary damn for the losers. And the losers are turning to the extremes! Why not they have little to lose. Kicking over the table might make things worse but maybe it won't. Continuing the current path that's a sure thing. The losers have lost out and will continue to be ignored and belittled by the established parties.

To put it bluntly turning to the extremes and kicking over the table is a perfectly logical response. And if you can kick the smug winners of the establishment in the balls at the same time even better. A system with to many losers and to few winners is inherently unstable and drifting to the extremes and that applies to the world in general not just Italy.
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هل سوف تَعبُر إيطاليا الخط الغير ليبيرالي؟

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