No es Sólo Culpa de Rusia

MOSCÚ: En la actualidad, muchas personas consideran que Rusia no se merece la ayuda de Occidente, debido al caos, la corrupción y el incumplimiento de pagos de la época de Yeltsin, pero además porque existe preocupación acerca del autoritarismo y los abusos a los derechos humanos del gobierno del presidente Putin. También se piensa que Rusia ya no necesita ayuda porque su economía y sus finanzas públicas han mejorado mucho, gracias al alza en los precios del petróleo y a que el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) ha tenido un crecimiento del 6.5% anual. En efecto, las cuentas corriente y fiscal muestran excedentes equivalentes al 17% y al 2% del PIB, respectivamente. A pesar de que tiene la deuda hasta el cuello (sus obligaciones ascienden a 75% del PIB) Rusia parece ser capaz de pagarle a sus acreedores.

Pero Rusia está buscando más reducción de deuda oficial (gubernamental), ahora del llamado "Club de París", por una cantidad de alrededor de 40 mil millones de dólares heredados del régimen soviético. El Primer Ministro ruso, Mikhail Kasyanov, de hecho viajará a Berlín la semana entrante para buscar apoyo para un trato provisional que se está negociando ahora. Rusia tiene fuertes argumentos para lograr la renegociación. Los gobiernos occidentales, sobre todo Alemania, propietaria de aproximadamente la mitad de la deuda rusa con el Club de París, tienen argumentos aún más fuertes para pedir a los contribuyentes que renuncien a parte de tales derechos.

Esto se relaciona con los préstamos que los gobiernos occidentales hicieron a la Unión Soviética. La razón principal del colapso de la URSS fue que el sistema soviético de planeación centralizada no pudo asegurar un adecuado rendimiento para dichos préstamos, de hecho para ninguna inversión. Los créditos del Club de París fueron realizados por agencias gubernamentales de financiamiento al comercio exterior, las cuales garantizan las compras externas de los bienes de capital y de otros productos de sus países. Como la OECD ha señalado en incontables ocasiones, esta es una forma de brindar subsidio gubernamental a la industria.

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