Politics

阿拉伯之春运动貌似不可能的赢家

Aug 22, 2013 Dominique Moisi

巴黎——2003年致使萨达姆·侯赛因政权倒台的伊拉克战争只有伊朗一个确实的赢家。以美国为首的军事干预削弱了美国在中东的传统盟友逊尼派政权，同时却增强了美国在该地区的主要敌人伊朗伊斯兰共和国的实力。

事隔十年，我们似乎见证了该地区另一个颇具讽刺意味的结果：至少到现在为止，以色列似乎成了“阿拉伯之春”革命运动中唯一确实的赢家。

多数以色列人肯定会强烈反对这样的解释。他们面临着更加动荡且前途未卜的地区环境。就在几天前，以色列的铁穹导弹防御系统刚刚拦截了一枚西奈半岛袭击埃拉特港的火箭弹。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 Comments on this article

Zsolt Hermann Aug 25, 2013

I agree with the writer that Israel has a very unique opportunity today.
Of course many people could offer valid argument for and against whether Israel is truly democratic, or whether Israel's treatment of the Palestinians is justified or not, but I think today there is hardly any leading western nation that could step into a light showcasing true democracy, true freedom even for its own citizens, or benevolent behavior towards its neighbors and others.
It is not only the Middle East that is in turmoil today but the whole global world.
Many people overlook the fact that the "nation" living in Israel is not a homogeneous nation but a very complex mixture of multiple nationalities, even cultures connected by historic tradition or common customs, or not even by such ties.
Despite this very inherently different mixture Israel maintains a democratic structure that is at least as functional as any other current western democracy.
And Israel is achieving this in the middle of an exploding volcano, which even up to this point constantly threatened its existence but now the situation has become so unstable and unpredictable that nobody can even guess what is going to happen in the next hour.
Thus Israel has a lot to offer to the rest of the world.
If they could come out of their shell and start teaching to the rest of the world how to unite and survive based on that national unity above their vast, inherent differences, even internal hatred, that could offer a possible solution for not on the Middle East sinking into bloodshed right now, but even for the rest of the world sinking in the unsolvable global crisis, which also has only one possible solution: a mutually responsible and mutually complementing global communication and cooperation between all the nations.
Today there are no individual, or national, bilateral or even regional solutions, there exist only a global mutual solution to all of our problems.
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m r Aug 25, 2013

Having defined the heading of the article, the author does NOT offer any detailing argument(s) further on- in fact they are just ignored. Instead multitude of Israel apologetic arguments are squarely occupied- which thus must be seen as its main purpose. There is no admission that much like Israel, Iran is also a very vibrant democracy- howsoever much it be denied. Israel having in the past effectively pocketed the Saudi Feudals and other Arab Feudals masked as Democrats with its results visible in the current turmoil in the region, are now confronted with ardent Iran and rightly scared stiff. So as opposed to enter an argument it is Israeli way to just have an avid environment of slinging mountains of mud- some of it will always sticks.

In view also of previous such contributions from this author, we are better off to have less of these "scholarly works".
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Jan Smith Aug 24, 2013

Just as Israel is not the Arab states' most dangerous enemy, so the Arab states are not Israel's most dangerous enemy.

By far the greatest enemy to Israel is the birth rates of its own apathetic or hostile population, the Arab and ultraorthodox Israelis.

Suppose Japan were to restore its population growth by importing Koreans and Manchurians. Its future would then be as grim as Israel's.
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hari naidu Aug 23, 2013

What I suspect you are missing here is the possible emerging scenario with (nuclear) Iran: CIA has finally been forced to release its 1953 role in Iran Coup (I posted it here earlier).

It's conceivable that new leadership in Iran will finally seek to bring the nuclear (NTP) crisis to a resolution under IAEA.
However there may be political conditions: re-establishing of diplomatic relations between Teheran - Washington which is bilateral interest of both parties.

So, taking into account your scenario, now, add some form of political rapprochement with West emerging out of Iran...and we have a diplomatic dynamics which might tilt the Arab uprising in favour of Iran and its allies.
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