La opción nuclear de Israel en el Irán

LOS ÁNGELES – Según revela en sus recién publicadas memorias, el ex Presidente George W. Bush rechazó una petición israelí de destruir el reactor nuclear secreto de Siria en la primavera de 2007. Si bien esa revelación puede parecer una simple nota a pie de página de la Historia, en un nivel más profundo crea una nueva incertidumbre sobre si piensa ahora Israel que puede confiar en los Estados Unidos para que apliquen la fuerza militar a fin de detener el programa nuclear del Irán, en caso de que la diplomacia fracase. Como el episodio sirio sugiere que no, Israel podría decidir actuar solo una vez más, en ese caso para eliminar las instalaciones nucleares del Irán.

Sin embargo, si lo hiciera, Israel afrontaría un enigma. A diferencia del ataque a la instalación nuclear de Siria, la potencia armada de Israel no tiene capacidad para destruir las instalaciones sospechosas del Irán. Algunas secciones del programa nuclear del Irán pueden estar profundamente bunquerizadas, dispersas u ocultas, lo que plantea la cuestión de si la repetida cantinela de Israel de que “todas las opciones están sobre la mesa” quiere decir que incluso un ataque nuclear es posible. La historia nuclear de Israel no brinda una respuesta clara, pero el futuro puede acelerar las cosas.

Israel nunca ha reconocido que cuente con armas nucleares, por no hablar del tamaño y el alcance de su arsenal. Las autoridades israelíes se niegan a hablar de ese asunto. El Parlamento de Israel, el Knesset, nunca examina el programa ni consigna fondos para él. Los censores militares acallan el debate público al respecto.

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