Israelis und Palästinenser im neuen Nahen Osten

BERLIN – Als in Gaza erneut die Waffen sprachen, da schien alles wie immer zu sein. Die Welt wurde ein weiteres Mal Zeuge eines gleichermaßen blutigen wie sinnlosen Krieges zwischen Israel und der Hamas, in dem – auch dies wie gehabt – auf beiden Seiten vor allem unschuldige Zivilisten getötet und verwundet wurden.

Allerdings trog diesmal der Schein, denn der Nahe Osten hatte sich in den vergangenen zwei Jahren nachdrücklich verändert, und das politische Epizentrum dieser Krisenregion findet sich seitdem nicht mehr im israelisch-palästinensischen Konflikt, sondern hat sich in Richtung dem Persischen Golf und der Auseinandersetzung um die regionale Vorherrschaft zwischen Iran und Saudi-Arabien/Türkei und neuerdings wieder Ägypten, zwischen Schiiten und Sunniten verschoben. Der alte Nahostkonflikt ist zu einem Nebenschauplatz geworden.

Die wichtigste Auseinandersetzung um diese Vorherrschaft ist gegenwärtig der syrische Bürgerkrieg, in dem alle wichtigen Akteure aus der Region direkt oder indirekt präsent sind, denn in Syrien wird eine Vorentscheidung um die regionale Hegemonie fallen. Assad und seine alawitisch-schiitische Machtbasis werden Syrien gegenüber der sunnitischen Mehrheit im Land und in der gesamten Region nicht halten können, das ist bereits heute gewiss. Die nach wie vor offene Frage allein bleibt, wann dies geschehen wird.

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