Les nouveaux problèmes du nouveau Moyen-Orient

BERLIN – Lorsque les hostilités ont repris à Gaza le mois dernier, il a semblé que l’histoire se répétait. Le monde était à nouveau témoin d’une flambée de violence insensée et sanglante entre Israël et le Hamas, dont les principales victimes sont des civils innocents, mutilés et tués des deux côtés.

Mais cette fois-ci les apparences sont trompeuses, parce que le Moyen-Orient a subi de profondes modifications au cours des deux dernières années. L’épicentre politique de cette région troublée s’est déplacé, du conflit israélo-palestinien vers le Golfe persique et la lutte pour la suprématie régionale, avec d’un côté l’Iran et de l’autre, l’Arabie saoudite, la Turquie et aujourd’hui l’Égypte. Cette nouvelle confrontation entre les puissances chiites et sunnites de la région a fait passer le conflit entre Israël et la Palestine au second plan.

Le principal théâtre de cette lutte pour le pouvoir se situe aujourd’hui en Syrie, où sont représentés tous les principaux acteurs régionaux, que ce soit directement ou indirectement, et où l’issue de la guerre civile décidera en grande partie la forme que prendra l’hégémonie régionale. Une chose est sûre : le président syrien Bachar el-Assad et ses alliés alaouites et chiites ne parviendront pas à maintenir le contrôle sur la majorité sunnite du pays et du reste de la région. La seule question est de savoir à quel moment le régime tombera.

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