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Die strategische Logik des Islamischen Staates

LONDON – Der so genannte Islamische Staat (IS) stellt weiterhin eine gravierende Herausforderung dar, und zwar nicht nur für den Nahen Osten, sondern für die ganze Welt. Obwohl die Bemühungen der von den USA angeführten Koalition zu einer Schwächung des IS geführt haben, hat sich die Zerschlagung der Organisation als schwierig erweisen – und sie zu weiteren Angriffen an Orten von Brüssel bis in das weit entfernte Bangladesch veranlasst.

Um zu ergründen, wie man dem IS ein für alle Mal den Garaus machen kann, müssen wir zunächst seine Strategie verstehen. Eines ist jedenfalls sicher: auch wenn die mit dem IS in Zusammenhang stehenden Angriffe zufällig erscheinen, steht hinter dem weltweiten Kreuzzug dieser Gruppe doch eine strategische Logik.

Der IS kämpft um sein Überleben. Er verfügt weder über das Geld noch über die personelle Ausstattung um so etwas wie einen traditionellen Krieg gegen die von den USA angeführte Koalition und ihre lokalen Verbündeten zu führen – zumindest nicht für längere Zeit. Sehr wohl jedoch hat man eine Botschaft, die in einer Reihe von Ländern im Nahen Osten, in Europa und anderswo bei gewissen Gruppen Anklang findet – typischerweise bei an den Rand gedrängten, desillusionierten und belasteten jungen Männern. Und der IS hat durchaus Fähigkeiten entwickelt, sich dieser Personalreserven zu bedienen.

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