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La Logique stratégique de l’État islamique

LONDRES – Le soi-disant État islamique (EI) continue de constituer une menace sérieuse non seulement au Moyen-Orient, mais pour le monde entier. Si les efforts de la coalition emmenée par les États-Unis ont affaibli l’EI, cette organisation s’avère néanmoins difficile à détruire – et persiste à encourager les attentats en tous lieux, de Bruxelles au Bangladesh.

Pour savoir comment vaincre l’EI une fois pour toute, nous devons comprendre sa stratégie. Et ne pas nous tromper : même si les attentats liés à l’EI semblent commis ici et là, au hasard, la croisade mondiale de l’organisation n’en possède pas moins une logique stratégique.

L’EI combat actuellement pour sa survie. Il n’a ni l’argent ni les ressources humaines pour mener une guerre traditionnelle contre la coalition conduite par les États-Unis et leurs alliés locaux – il n’y résisterait pas longtemps. Il a en revanche un message qui trouve auprès de certains groupes – généralement de jeunes hommes marginalisés, frustrés et tourmentés – un écho dans un large éventail de pays, au Moyen-Orient, en Europe et ailleurs. Et il excelle à puiser dans ces poches de ressources humaines.

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