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المنطق الاستراتيجي لتنظيم الدولة الإسلامية

لندن ــ يفرض ما يسمى تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية (داعش)، بلا انقطاع، تهديدا خطيرا ليس للشرق الأوسط فحسب بل والعالم بأسره. ورغم أن الجهود التي يبذلها التحالف الذي تقوده الولايات المتحدة أضعفت تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية، فقد تبين أن تدمير هذه الزمرة ليس بالمهمة السهلةـ ــ وقد استمر هذا في تحفيز وإشاعة الهجمات في أماكن متباعدة، من بروكسل إلى بنجلاديش.

يتعين علينا أولا، لكي نفهم كيف نحبط تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية ونقهره، أن نفهم استراتيجيته. وأرجو أن أكون واضحا هنا: فحتى وإن بدت الهجمات الدولية المرتبطة بتنظيم الدولة الإسلامية عشوائية، فإن الحملة العالمية التي تشنها هذه الجماعة تخضع لمنطق استراتيجي.

إن تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية يقاتل من أجل البقاء. وهو لا يملك المال ولا القوة البشرية اللازمة لخوض أي شيء أشبه بحرب تقليدية ضد تحالف تقوده الولايات المتحدة، وحلفائها التقليديين ــ على الأقل ليس لفترة طويلة. ولكنه يحمل رسالة يتردد صداها بين فئات معينة من البشر ــ وهم عادة من الشباب المهمشين المحبَطين المعذبين ــ ضمن نطاق واسع من البلدان، في الشرق الأوسط، وأوروبا، وأماكن أخرى من العالم. وقد أصبح التنظيم شديد البراعة في استغلال مصادر القوة البشرية هذه.

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