Arab man overlooking mountains in Middle East

Enceguecidos por el ISIS

MADRID – El consenso general que surgió luego de la masacre del mes pasado en París parece ser que sólo se puede derrotar al Estado Islámico (ISIS) con una invasión terrestre de su "estado". Es un delirio. Aun si Occidente y sus aliados locales (los kurdos, la oposición siria, Jordania y otros países árabes sunitas) llegaran a un acuerdo respecto de quién proporcionaría el grueso de las tropas terrestres, el ISIS ya ha reformulado su estrategia. Ahora es una organización global con franquicias locales capaces de causar estragos en capitales occidentales.

De hecho, el ISIS siempre ha sido el síntoma de un problema más profundo. La desintegración del Oriente Medio árabe refleja la incapacidad de la región de encontrar un camino entre el nacionalismo secular en crisis que ha dominado su sistema estatal desde la independencia y una rama radical del Islam en guerra contra la modernidad. El problema fundamental consiste en una lucha existencial entre estados absolutamente disfuncionales y un tipo obscenamente salvaje de fanatismo teocrático.

Con esa lucha, en la que la mayoría de los regímenes de la región han agotado sus reservas ya limitadas de legitimidad, está colapsando un orden regional centenario. Por cierto, Israel, Irán y Turquía -todos países con mayorías no árabes- probablemente sean los únicos estados nación genuinamente cohesivos de la región.

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