Arab man overlooking mountains in Middle East

Politics

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Dec 4, 2015 Shlomo Ben-Ami

МАДРИД – После ноябрьской бойни в Париже возник общий консенсус, будто Исламское государство (ИГИЛ) можно победить лишь наземным вторжением на территорию этого «государства». Это иллюзия. Пусть даже Запад и его местные союзники (курды, сирийская оппозиция, Иордания и другие суннитские арабские страны) сумеют договориться о том, кто предоставит основную часть наземных войск, ИГИЛ уже изменил свою стратегию. Теперь это глобальная организация, предоставившая свой бренд местным группировкам, способным сеять хаос в западных столицах.

ИГИЛ всегда был симптомом более глубокой проблемы. Дезинтеграция арабского Ближнего Востока стала результатом неспособности региона найти дорогу между обанкротившимся светским национализмом (эта государственная система преобладала после обретения независимости) и радикальной формой ислама, объявившей войну современности. Фундаментальная проблема заключается в экзистенциальной борьбе между совершенно недееспособными государствами и откровенно дикими формами теократического фанатизма.

Из-за этой борьбы, в ходе которой большая часть режимов в регионе уже исчерпала свои и так уже ограниченные запасы легитимности, рушится вековой региональный порядок. Более того, Израиль, Иран и Турция – все эти страны не имеют арабского большинства – стали, по всей видимости, единственными по-настоящему сплоченными национальными государствами в регионе.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 28 Comments on this article

Gary Mullennix Dec 13, 2015

Attrition can work...but the rest of the world needs to understand Islam much better than now. It fuels the willingness to die of those army of believers scattered around the world. And Wahabbist SA is everyone's enemy.
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Bernard Fudim Dec 10, 2015

Perhaps there really is no such area of peoples called the Middle East and instead it is only a convenient term of reference for what is a hodgepodge of conflicting cultures, tribal and religious contentions whose significance is only oil. In that event the so called artificial demarcations of boundaries that resulted after ww1 for the convenience of the victorious Allied Powers were only a continuation of fluid artificial boundaries that existed there from time immemorial.
It is an ungovernable land, except through the use of brute force. Even such a geographic area as Turkey could only be governed by Generals, and by the subordination of religious fervor through brute force and the overthrow of governments. Are we deluding ourselves by thinking that through job opportunities and education, that the subsequent rise in living comforts can remove the ungovernable nature of that particular mixture consisting of oceans of sand, that were first navigable only by carefully chosen routes from watering hole to watering hole, and through mountainous divides, in order to connect the Orient to Europe?
They had a history of science and philosophy but they were short lived, only to succumb to Caliphates that thought those ideas were dangerous to religious rule by the prevailing victorious religious power. The marvels of architecture and navigation were first discovered by the Phaoronic kingdoms and not by the Middle East that is part of the Asian continent. The Asian Middle East doesn't seem to have that cohesive sense of national identification that exists in Egypt.
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john phelps Dec 8, 2015

Correct but incomplete. Iraq and Syria were designed by England and France to Fail. The effects of conquest and colonialism plus the west's support of Dictators and opposition to democracy (Iran Greece after WWII) limited economic development . Without a middle class and hope for the future. They could'nt have failed without us.
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Cary Fraser Dec 8, 2015

It would also be useful to remember that the rise of Hezbollah as a military force followed upon the Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanon in pursuit of Ariel Sharon's vainglorious effort to eliminate the PLO and Yasser Arafat. Hezbollah remains a symbol of the effectiveness of Iran and the PLO in reshaping the strategic environment in the region.
The inability of the major Sunni Arab states to get the USA and Israel to resolve the Palestinian issue opened questions about their influence/legitimacy in regional politics. To distract from their lack of diplomatic success, they focused upon supporting the American effort to undermine the Soviet Union's occupation in Afghanistan in collaboration with Osama bin Laden and the jihadi movement. ISIS/ISIL/Daesh has emerged as the legacy of those decisions made in the 1980s.
The current turn to Russia, given the increasing militarization of the region and its status as the site of multiple killing fields since the 1980s amid the rise of religious/sectarian conflict, is one indicator that the Carter Doctrine has exhausted its appeal.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is now unveiling an increasing level of tension over the management of the Holy Sites at the heart of the conflict and, given the Western record in the region other players will have to play an increasing role in stabilizing role in the region through astute diplomacy.
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eusebio manuel Dec 8, 2015

I love you State Union Stop Wars in world
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John Reuter, Esq. (Ret.) Dec 6, 2015

On treats a cold by starving it, but one treats pneumonia with antibiotics. Let's destroy ISIS with Roundup, then go back to pulling up weeds by hand, one by one starting with Saudi Arabia.
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Allen Mackenzie Dec 6, 2015

The author fails to mention the most important solution: ISLAM MUST REFORM.
The theoretical underpinnings of this backward and barbaric philosophy must be continuously challenged and encouraged to reform and the funding of the mosques around the world that propagate such a mindless hate by theocratic regimes must be curtailed.
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Douglas Leyendecker Dec 6, 2015

"An idle mind is the devil's workshop." Only by building economic opportunity will people have less time to focus on fanaticism.
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Wim Roffel Dec 6, 2015

Schlomo basically argues that Saudi Arabia is destabilizing Iraq and Syria and that we should do nothing to stop them.

I beg to disagree. ISIS - a being a foreign funded and directed organization - is vulnerable. But we should pay more attention to the head of the monster and seriously sanction the Saudi's. Fighting against a guerrilla that is continuously reinforced from the outside - as we do for example in Afghanistan - is an unwinnable task.
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M M Dec 5, 2015

The situation in Libya seems to be deteriorating rapidly. Daesh apparently have already occupied two towns (one of them is Sirte, the home town of Ghaddafi). They are training their men to fly the ex-Libyan air force military jets and parading their newly delivered, brand new, “fully customized” Toyotas….. They are getting closer to Europe and our “beloved” leadership are sending fighter jets to Iraq and Syria whilst the enemy is getting nearer the European shores / borders and already within, in the case of some countries. The incompetence..
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peter fairley Dec 5, 2015

1)"the oil-rich monarchies’ collusion with terrorist groups" statement is a serious insult with no evidence given to support it. I suspect much of this 'collusion' is more indirect, by corruption , incompetence or neglect...with education systems that are backward and overly religious ...leading to the observation here that says 2) a "struggle between utterly dysfunctional states and an obscenely savage brand of theocratic fanaticism". Everybody hates neo-cons but Niall Ferguson's, writings about the positive aspects of colonialism come to mind. Many states have shown their governments are far inferior to the colonialists they kicked out. In the absence of competent leadership the West is getting sucked back in to these countries. We give them free police & other government services whether we like being colonialist or not.
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John Brian Shannon Dec 5, 2015

Hi Shlomo,

It's a truism that "political problems cannot be solved by military means" and this must be much truer when those political problems were caused by foreign-backed regime change (Arab Spring)

Until the Western aided and abetted the Arab Spring, countries like Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan were sleepy little jurisdictions quietly pumping oil and growing dates with very low levels of drama considering the oppressive heat, the poverty, and the close quarters that people live in, in cities like Cairo.

As you wisely point out, Shlomo, trying to defeat ISIS in Syria or Iraq will merely drive them to other countries where they are presumably building capability to attack Iraq War coalition nations and Arab Spring coalition nations.

Which works out just fine for neocons. Bigger defense budgets, more rights stripped away from law abiding citizens, more racial and cultural profiling, and more domestic surveillance.

The neocons are pushing ISIS' buttons and getting exactly the result they want! More domestic fear, more hawkish voting patterns, enhanced domestic spying powers, degraded civil rights for law abiding citizens and larger budgets.

It's all working so well for the neocons, I'm wondering if they are giving ISIS kickback money?

Talk about a symbiotic relationship!

As always, very best regards, JBS
- M M Dec 5, 2015
  
  Well said JBS. Very much true everything you said, regarding your last question, the answer is quite simple really, one can start with the Brand New "Toyotas" that they are getting / using, the latest weaponries, etc...
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- Michael Public Dec 5, 2015
  
  Spot on John.
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j. von Hettlingen Dec 5, 2015

Shlomo Ben-Ami is pessimistic about the future of the "Arab Middle East," which is the source of many evils - sectarianism, Islamic extremism and terrorism. The Sunni Arabs - "darlings of the West" - and the Saudi Wahhabis have helped fuel the conflict by "reviving the seventh-century vision that ISIS (and others) seek to realize." No doubt Washington's support of autocratic regimes and the Iraq war are to blame "for the mayhem" as well. Unfortunately hope for stability may just be a distant prospect, because there is no appetite for "indigenous change" for the moment. He points out that "Israel, Iran, and Turkey – all non-Arab-majority countries – are probably the region’s only genuinely cohesive nation-states."
The civil war in Syria may go down in modern history as the most complicated conflict and has helped midwife the birth of the Islamic State. After a series of recent attacks that can be linked to ISIS, a pattern has emerged that it relies on followers abroad to form "local franchised groups capable of wreaking havoc" in the West. The problem is that defeating ISIS might not eliminate the threat of Islamic terrorism, which has its roots in the absence of an alternative "between the bankrupt, secular nationalism that has dominated its state system since independence and a radical brand of Islam at war with modernity." ISIS had exploited the collapse of a "century-old regional order" and a vacuum left by "utterly dysfunctional states" with little legitimacy to set up its caliphate and used "an obscenely savage brand of theocratic fanaticism" to cement its ideology.
The author says the Gulf states "envied Iran's success with its Lebanese Shia proxy, Hezbollah." In response they put together a bunch of "psychopaths and adventurers" under the banner of a brutal "totalitarian caliphate." He questions whether these regimes are still reliable allies of the West in fighting Islamic extremism, if they "collaborate with terrorist groups." He believes a coalition-led "ground invasion" might drive ISIS out of Iraq and Syria, but it woud seek a safe haven elsewhere in another "no man's land." Subsequently he sees the danger of a "global jihadi campaign" against the West. Despite the "ideological and strategic rift between ISIS and Al Qaeda" they may still join forces in fighting the "common enemy – the incumbent Arab regimes and the West."
Iran and Turkey have sought to "exploit the inevitable chaos to expand their presence" in the region. Iran tries to consolidate power in Syria and Iraq, while Turkey opposes a Kurdish state in Syria. Although the Kurds are the West only "reliable and capable fighters," and they have driven ISIS out of Kobani and Sinjar, they primarily focus on defending their territories and have little interest in "subduing the Sunni heartland of Iraq and Syria." There is no guarantee that the West would reward the Kurds with "full-fledged statehood." They meet similar "geostrategic constraints" as their ancestors, that have prevented Kurdish independence.
The author fears that fighting ISIS would "eventually stir up mass sympathy for the Caliphate throughout the region, thus providing ISIS with a propaganda victory." He urges for patience and resolve in dealing with ISIS - to curb its expansion, drain its finance, improve intelligence cooperation among allies. The Sunnis have to pull themselves together by severing tie with terrorists and implement reforms. Meanwhile one can hope for an implosion within the IS, which would be the "best that can be expected."
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Richard Solomon Dec 4, 2015

The other piece of the dynamics that that otherwise excellent, albeit pessimistic, analysis does not note is that some, much of the conflicts center around the Shiite/Sunni divide. As long as these two factions of Islam refuse to find an accomsation with each other the fighting will continue. Within countries like Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Iraq they will struggle for dominance within each inside being supported by either the Saudis or Iran. Ie, the proxy wars will go on for as long as the Saudis and/or the Iranians want them to/have the resources to fuel them.

Containing, if not eliminating, ISIS can help but it won't resolve the underlying causes that fuel these failed states and the fighting going on.
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Daniel Moylan Dec 4, 2015

If the struggle centered on dysfunctional states in the Arab Middle East, then why would theocratic fanatics carry out atrocities against complete strangers in disparate lands? This point has truth, but is it complete? The thesis does not easily explain the metastasis of terrorism on a global scale, including by "lone wolves" who may have little connection to autocratic Middle Eastern regimes. Might there be some deeper connection between the growing inequality of wealth, income and opportunity, and extremist ideology? If a growing population feels permanently shut out of global institutions and prosperity, then such hopelessness, especially among youth, might create the conditions for extremism to grow. Yet even this thesis seems incomplete, as it cannot easily explain why certain forms of extremism disproportionately arise in Muslim communities. Is it possible that some Muslims may feel that their faith and traditions are under constant assault by hidden forces of modernity, causing them to view everyone outside their immediate group as hostile? If so, that may help to explain why extremists indiscriminately target innocent people of all faiths, including fellow Muslims.
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Francesco D'Allessandro Dec 4, 2015

The Chinese master strategist Sun Tzu wrote a maxim that holds true: "Know the enemy and know yourself...and winning your battles will be guaranteed". Unfortunately for the Western societies they don't have a clear clue as to who their true opponents are and as a consequence it has lead us to the current predicament we find ourselves in.

Western civilization as a whole has a pathological addiction with instant fixes. Instant coffee, fast foods, car washes, sex, etc. This behavior can be devastating when applied to foreign policy as our elected officials try to find on-the-spot remedies in dealing with Syria/ISIS or Iran without analyzing the aftereffects of belligerent actions or a bad treaty rather than no pact at all.

Take the Obama administration as an example. In a frenetic rush to seal a deal with an Iran (perhaps as a way to cement his presidential legacy rather than a well thought out policy), whose nuclear intransigence has its economy in shambles suddenly it is given needed oxygen. Why assist an avowed Western adversary who is partially moribund? However we did.

Mr. Ben-Ami’s pessimistic analysis that “the Arab Middle East is not susceptible to quick fixes” is right on the spot (his whole essay is). The region is a cauldron of hatred and religious fanaticism that will not be quelled by the usual recycled tactics of the past. Thinking outside the box is required if we are to overcome this challenge. We need commanders at the helm with the visions of a Churchill, a De Gaulle or an Eisenhower. So it is paramount that when the next round of elections come about whether in the UK, France, Germany, America or any other state within the Westphalian network we get to know who we are choosing to steer our existence.

Which brings us back to deciphering our foes and ourselves. Our liberal world order populations must be cautious as to how we cast our votes come election time. As a whole we designate thru the power of the ballot our leaders. In the majority of cases we appoint a person out of sympathy, appeal, verbiage without careful consideration of who truly has the most experience to lead us regardless of the party. Though it is sad to say, the last three American presidents have been an intrinsic part of the chaos that engulfs our contemporary way of life. Each has its share of the culpability for allowing the malignant genie out of the bottle. Whether it is Hizballah, al-Qaida, ISIS or any other Islamist extremist confederacies they all have expanded and continue so without a reduction of intensity because of their presidential actions or inactions.

At the end, it is not ISIS who has blinded us but our representatives; they are the ones that thru inferior policy decisions have permitted the growth of our antagonists. To say otherwise is not to comprehend the mare’s nest we are facing or our own selves for being unwitting accomplices in this theater of the absurd.
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Max Isert Dec 4, 2015

Very good article! Thank you very much!
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Paul Daley Dec 4, 2015

Ben-Ami is basically arguing that Sunni Arabs have no legitimate representatives, so it's alright for outside powers to sort out their future. But that type of argument only serves to push different Sunni groups with different interests closer together. In the end, the monarchs of the Gulf and the radical nationalists of the Islamic State will probably end up working together. That's what happens when nation states coalesce. But who leads, and who follows will make all the difference to how that Sunni Arab political coalition interacts with other states in the region. Western powers have to recognize this and not become so wrapped up in the war against ISIS that they sacrifice influence that they may eventually need to help shape the evolution of the region.
- M M Dec 4, 2015
  
  There is the “Arab League” of nations that could deal with the crises in Iraq and Syria. Actually up until 2012, they were about to agree on a solution but then everything fell apart (due to Ukraine, Egypt, Iran, etc.). There are several International Organisations and Forums in existence especially set up to deal with potential conflicts and disagreements between nations. But they all have been side lined, like the UN Security Council, since this US administration came into office. The Obama Administration decided to work by proxy and through the houses of representatives of nation countries of the P5 UN Security Council and other countries (all for the avoidance of responsibility and blame). That is why most political leaders (including Russia) referred the approval of their action to bombing Syria, to their houses of representatives / deputies, whilst in effect this is the role of the UN Security Council (Libya is one example).
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M M Dec 4, 2015

“Whenever there is a will, there is a Way”. There has never been a “True” will by any party to resolve the Syrian/Iraq crises. Very many countries, regimes and individuals are benefiting greatly by keeping the fire alight. Weapons manufacturers are working 24/7 to supply / fund these wars which ultimately will be paid for by the Tax Payers in the West since Iraq and Syria will never be able to pay back a penny once this is all over, if ever during this generation. Cheap oil is flowing in all directions and most importantly the drug trade. ISIS have managed to manufacture (and not cultivate) narcotics and export them all over the place and fund their activities which in turn is supporting the economies of many countries. Regrettably, there shall be no end in sight anytime soon. Assad will be seeing the back of Obama in a few months. Obama’s successor will inherit a mess that most probably will decide to pull out of it, like Obama did when he inherited the Iraq/Afghanistan mess and therefore leave a bigger mess behind and the cycle shall goes on and on. So Europe, brace yourself for an indefinite flood of migrants for the foreseeable future and higher debts in the pipeline and you can thank the current political / financial leadership for all of this and for what is to come.
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Odyssios Redux Dec 4, 2015

' The fundamental problem consists in an existential struggle between utterly dysfunctional states and an obscenely savage brand of theocratic fanaticism'

On this one? The fanatics win. Religious fanaticism has always had better running power than corrupt secular power. Weird? Well,it's a human thing. And to unpack that one would take volumes!
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Odyssios Redux Dec 4, 2015

Thanks; excellent points all. Ironic that the last time the Middle East was somnolently stable was in the time of the dear departed Ottoman Empire!

IS thrives purely in areas of exceedingly bad, or no, governance. This extends effectively from parts of Africa, to Pakistan. So far as IS itself goes, what's sustaining it is the assault on it. This gives great propaganda benefit, has little effect, and maybe most importantly, delays the internecine struggles that will be come the main threat to its existence, once 'peace' breaks out. This is the fastest way to deal with it - exploit its inherent instabilities due to fault-lines within Islam. 'The West' should simply back off air strikes and such, while pressuring Saudi to both stop supporting Wahhabism (good luck), and actively funding IS or similar mobs.

But every western nation responding to all this, is doing so at the level of a very dim and ignorant amateur. Which is the best way to support IS.

There have been objections that IS is not a 'real state.' Well, not in the 21st century, comfortable US/European sense; but as a widespread warlord-ry, clearly sufficiently coherent to withstand a lot of outside pressure. In fact, historically, a very common kind of state!

The whole area makes 'Mad Max' movies look like a documentary; add the pernicious vitriol of Wahhabism, and that's what we're dealing with.
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Petey Bee Dec 4, 2015

When in doubt, dig deeper. This appears to be the plan.
Syria's problem is civil war. Europe's is Terror. The US's is the bizarre mix of stupidity, naivete, and overambitious dishonesty injected by neo con ideals that Obama sadly absorbed. Although each of the three are a manifestation of a common historical root, today I will treat them separately.

The Syrian civil war problem will be resolved by proxy forces winning it. Perhaps some are "unsavory". Nevermind. There is still room to sweep contradictions under the rug.

The Euro terror problem will be solved by applying high explosives until the worldwide audience of extremist sympathizers finally sees that violence is not an effective tool for them, while the western audience shall see that it is, for us.

Lastly, the US's habit of mysteriously motivated foreign policy cock-ups will be solved by electing the same people who "fixed" Libya.

So yes, it's going to be more of the same, until we get to the upturn in the hockey-stick curve...
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Steve Hurst Dec 4, 2015

The Paris event can only be a seen as an invitation to bomb IS. The question therefore is why is the reaction by the West precisely to take this invitation up by IS who the West keeps describing as an enemy.

As far as the EU homebred terrorist, who is sponsored by IS, there has been no really effective policy offered. Indeed it is clear that bombing IS in the ME is a great deal easier as an action than dealing with the homebred problem which is probably why there is so much enthusiasm for it, the desire to be seen to be doing something.

Fighting terrorists militarily when they are supported by a community - however much or little - is notoriously difficult and it has to be suspected that IS will not engage in a political solution, quite appart from the little matter of other parties at play in the area. That leaves economic war, cutting off funding / income to IS and leaving IS internal 'tax' revenue to collapse as it is cannibalistic in nature. This requires concerted action from countries bordering IS areas.

As far as the EU homebred problem goes, a great deal more funding is required and the muslim population has to engage far more in proactive behaviour whether they like it or not. There is no way around the fact if you are concerned about muslim terrorists you have to look in the muslim population not the non-muslim community no matter how much people want to complain about it. Its unfortunate, but reality. It is also probable that all citizens will lose privacy rights along the way
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