Arab man overlooking mountains in Middle East

Aveuglés par l'État islamique

MADRID – Le consensus général qui se dessine depuis le carnage du mois dernier à Paris semble dire qu'une victoire sur l'État islamique (EI) n'est possible que par une invasion terrestre de son « État. » C'est une illusion. Même si l'Occident et ses alliés dans la région (les Kurdes, l'opposition syrienne, la Jordanie et d'autres pays Arabes sunnites), ont réussi à s'entendre sur les acteurs à même de fournir le gros des troupes au sol, l'EI a déjà remanié sa stratégie. Il s'agit à présent d'une organisation mondiale dotée de groupes de franchisés locaux capables de faire des ravages dans les capitales occidentales.

En fait, l'EI est depuis toujours le symptôme d'un problème plus profond. La désintégration à l'œuvre au Moyen-Orient reflète l'incapacité de la région à trouver sa voie entre l'échec du nationalisme laïc qui a dominé son système étatique depuis l'indépendance et la marque d'un Islam radical en guerre contre la modernité. Le problème fondamental consiste en une lutte existentielle entre des États entièrement dysfonctionnels et la marque de sauvagerie extrême du fanatisme théocratique.

Par cette lutte, dans laquelle la plupart des régimes de la région ont épuisé leur stock de légitimité déjà limité, un ordre régional vieux d'un siècle est en train de s'effondrer. En effet, Israël, l'Iran et la Turquie (des pays majoritairement non arabes), sont probablement les seuls États-nations véritablement cohésifs de la région.

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