Arab man overlooking mountains in Middle East

被伊斯兰国所蒙蔽

马德里——上个月巴黎大屠杀后刚刚达成的共识似乎是唯有依靠地面入侵才能打败伊斯兰国(ISIS)。这其实是种错觉。即使西方国家及其当地盟友(库尔德人、叙利亚反对派、约旦和其他逊尼派阿拉伯国家)能就由谁提供大量地面部队达成一致,伊斯兰国也已经调整了自己的战略。它现在已经成为能在西方国家造成严重破坏且拥有当地授权的全球性组织。

事实上,伊斯兰国不过是深层次问题的表象而已。阿拉伯中东地区的分裂反映出该地区在独立后一直主导其国家体制的破产的世俗民族主义和与现代化为敌的激进伊斯兰教派之间找不到出路。根本问题在于完全无法正常运转的国家和政教合一、极度野蛮的狂热势力间存在不可调和的冲突。

随着这场耗尽多数政权本就有限的合法性的地区冲突,拥有百年历史的地区秩序顷刻间土崩瓦解。事实上,以色列、伊朗和土耳其——即该地区仅有的几个非阿拉伯人占据多数的国家——很可能是唯一真正有凝聚力的民族政府。

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