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Европейская стратегия Исламского государства

ЛОНДОН – Террористические атаки Исламского государства (ИГИЛ), его филиалов и сторонников за прошлый год повысили уровень тревог в Европе, но, согласно данным Глобальной базы данных по терроризму, эти атаки еще не достигли тех размеров, какие Европа испытала в 1970-х годах. Предыдущие волны терроризма в Европе были порождены внутренними конфликтами, сегодняшний смертельный всплеск терроризма связан с нестабильностью за пределами континента.

Последние нападения возникли в связи с политическим вакуумом, возникшим из-за падения диктатур на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке. Так же как не видно никакого конца кровопролитию в Сирии, Ираке и Ливии, или чрезвычайной поляризации Египта и хрупкой ситуации с безопасностью в Тунисе и Алжире, мало оснований считать, что нападения в Европе закончатся в ближайшее время.

В довершение всего, кровавый путч в июле в Турции – где были убиты 270 человек и еще 1500 человек ранены всего за несколько часов – делает страну еще более привлекательной целью для ИГИЛ. ИГИЛ использует в своих целях неблагополучные страны, из которых оно может привлечь новичков и предпринять нападения – либо создавая «официальную область ИГИЛа», как это было сделано в Сирии, Ираке, Ливии и Египте, либо создавая подпольные ячейки и небольшие боевые подразделения, как это было сделано в Тунисе и Турции.

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