Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images

Die europäische Strategie des Islamischen Staates

LONDON – Die Terroranschläge durch Partner oder Sympathisanten des Islamischen Staates (IS) der letzten Jahre haben in Europa Alarm ausgelöst, aber laut der Global Terrorism Database noch nicht den Umfang der Anschläge erreicht, die Europa in den 1970ern erlitt. Während allerdings vorherige Wellen des Terrorismus in Europa aus internen Konflikten hervorgingen, hängt die heutige tödliche Welle mit der Instabilität außerhalb des Kontinents zusammen.

Die jüngsten Anschläge kommen aus dem politischen Vakuum, das die gestürzten Diktatoren im Nahen Osten oder in Nordafrika hinterlassen haben. Genau wie bei der Gewalt in Syrien, im Irak oder in Libyen, der extremen Polarisierung in Ägypten oder der empfindlichen Sicherheitslage in Tunesien und Algerien kein Ende in Sicht ist, gibt es wenig Gründe zu glauben, die Anschläge in Europa seien bald vorbei.

Verschlimmert wird die Lage noch dadurch, dass die Türkei nach dem blutigen Putschversuch – bei dem 270 Menschen getötet und 1.500 weitere verwundet wurden – als Ziel für den IS noch attraktiver wird. Der IS lebt von problembelasteten Staaten, wo er Rekruten gewinnen und Anschläge verüben kann – entweder durch die Gründung einer „offiziellen Provinz“ wie in Syrien, im Irak, in Libyen oder in Ägypten, oder durch die Unterstützung geheimer Zellen und kleiner Kampfeinheiten wie in Tunesien oder der Türkei.

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