Paul Lachine

¿La mezquita o la modernidad?

PARÍS – ¿Qué pasó con la primavera árabe? Cuando estallaron las protestas en Túnez, Egipto y Libia, que en última instancia condujeron a la caída de tres dictaduras viejas y desgastadas, nadie sabía qué fuerzas, instituciones y procedimientos surgirían de las demandas de democracia de los manifestantes. Pero, a pesar del giro inesperado y sin precedentes que dieron los acontecimientos –o tal vez debido a él– se alimentaron grandes esperanzas.

Lo que ha pasado muestra claramente lo que todos sabían (o debían haber sabido) desde el principio: un cambio de régimen es complicado. Ninguno de los tres países ha encontrado todavía una solución institucional estable que pueda desactivar las tensiones internas, que se intensifican cada vez más, y responder efectivamente a las demandas populares.

Otros países de la región, incluidos Yemen y algunos de los Estados del Golfo, han experimentado desórdenes de distintos grados. La violencia sectaria está consumiendo nuevamente a Irak, mientras que los choques entre las facciones que se oponen al régimen en Siria se hacen cada vez más frecuentes, puesto que los islamistas tratan de ganar ventaja antes de la transición política que resultaría si el gobierno se colapsara. Incluso en Marruecos, un rey con poder absoluto como Comendador de los Creyentes se ha visto obligado a adoptar un sistema que tome más en cuenta al Islam político debido al intenso descontento popular.

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