Paul Lachine

清真寺还是现代性?

巴黎—“阿拉伯之春”发生了什么?当示威在突尼斯、埃及和利比亚爆发、最终导致三个已呈强弩之末之势的独裁政权倒闭时,没人知道哪些势力、机构和程序将出现在游行者的民主诉求中。而尽管发生的事件前所未有、无法预料——或许也正因如此——但被寄予的希望仍然很高。

此后发生的一切清楚地表明了所有人都看到(或者说应该早就知道)的东西:政权的转变没有简单的事情。这三个国家没有一个找到了稳定的制度性解决方案能够平息不断加剧的内部紧张、有效地响应群众要求。

地区中的其他国家,包括也门和一些海湾国家,也经历了不同程度的动荡。宗派暴力再次在伊拉克兴起,叙利亚反体制派系之间的冲突越来越频繁,伊斯兰势力正在寻求在政治过渡期来临前(如果政府倒台的话)占得先机。甚至在摩洛哥,作为忠实臣民司令官、掌握绝对权力的国王也在汹汹民意下转向了更加包容的政治伊斯兰制度。

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