Captured Islamic State militants in Mosul Martyn Aim/Getty Images

ИГИЛ после Мосула

РАМАЛЛА – На минувшей неделе премьер-министр Ирака Хайдер аль-Абади объявил об освобождении от Исламского государства (ИГИЛ) Мосула, того самого города, где три года назад эта группировка впервые провозгласила свой самозваный халифат. Как ожидается, вскоре ИГИЛ потеряет ещё и Ракку, свой последний оплот, где его контроль уже ослабел. Но было бы ошибкой полагать, что эти поражения означают гибель ИГИЛ и схожих с ним боевых экстремистских группировок.

Опорой группировок, подобных ИГИЛ, является их способность привлекать в свои ряды молодёжь, предлагая разочарованным людям идеологически заряженный смысл жизни. Именно этим умело занимается ИГИЛ: он притягивает со всего мира боевиков, готовых умереть за его дело – создать единый халифат, охватывающий весь арабский мир, и вдохновляет многих других на совершение терактов в своих родных странах.

Освобождение территорий из-под власти ИГИЛ, а особенно городов, которые играли роль «столиц» в этом самопровозглашённом халифате, его серьезно ослабляет: это сигнал того, что на самом деле данная группировка не способна превратить свою религиозную идеологию в реальную геополитическую силу. Более того, по оценкам американской разведки, к сентябрю прошлого года приток иностранных рекрутов, приезжающих в Сирию через Турцию, чтобы вступить в группировки, подобные ИГИЛ, снизился с максимального уровня две тысячи человек в месяц до всего лишь 50.

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