L’Ukraine sera-t-elle la prochaine ?

LONDRES – La guerre en Géorgie a manifestement mis au jour l’isolement de la région environnante, ainsi qu'une multitude de points sensibles. La décision hâtive de la Russie de reconnaître l’« indépendance » de l'Ossétie du Sud et de l'Abkhazie a sonné comme un avertissement pour les pays voisins et avivé les spéculations sur qui serait le prochain – et comment empêcher la Russie de reproduire le « précédent » du Kosovo sur d'autres pays de l'ex-Bloc soviétique.

L’Union européenne, qui s’est imposée comme médiatrice du conflit, doit traiter une multitude de priorités en Géorgie. Elle doit aussi se demander comment renforcer son engagement en matière de sécurité, de démocratie et de prospérité dans le « voisinage » européen. La solution européenne la plus efficace pour faire face à une Russie forte d’un aplomb nouveau sera de refuser collectivement une Europe bipolaire comportant deux sphères d'influence : celles de la Russie et de l’UE.

Il faut commencer par l'Ukraine. Le sommet UE/Ukraine qui se tiendra le 9 septembre prochain à Évian sera l'occasion idéale.

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