Gibt es eine Immobilienblase?

Auf der ganzen Welt verkünden Zeitungen lautstark die Neuigkeit vom bevorstehenden Platzen einer ,,Immobilienblase". In zahlreichen Artikeln mit Überschriften wie ,,Heißluftschlösser" warnte das britische Wirtschaftsmagazin The Economist vor dieser Entwicklung. Das Wall Street Journal schlug mit Schlagzeilen wie ,,Steigende Immobilienpreise schüren die Angst vor der Blase" in dieselbe Kerbe. Le Monde in Frankreich warnte vor der ,,Wachsenden Bedrohung durch die Immobilienblase", und das australische Blatt The Sydney Morning Herald diagnostizierte eine möglicherweise ,,Unheilvolle Immobilienblase".

Sind solche Ängste gerechtfertigt? Woran erkennen wir, dass sich der Immobilienmarkt in einer Blase befindet?

Der Ausdruck ,,Blase" wird zwar oft verwendet, aber selten definiert. Eine Blase tritt auf, wenn die allgemeinen Erwartungen über zukünftige Preissteigerungen aus den Fugen geraten und die Preise dadurch in untragbare Höhen ansteigen. In diesem Fall kaufen viele Menschen Immobilien als Geldanlage, um sie dann weiterzuvermieten. Noch viel mehr Menschen kaufen sich Immobilien, um selbst darin zu leben, aber sie verhalten sich dabei ähnlich wie Investoren. Sie befürchten, dass sie bei längerem Zuwarten vom Markt verdrängt werden könnten.

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