Economics

هل تبرر الأرباح المبهرة أسعار الأسهم المبهرة في الولايات المتحدة؟

Sep 24, 2018 Robert J. Shiller

نيوهافين ــ سجلت سوق الأوراق المالية (البورصة) الأميركية، قياسا على مؤشر ستاندرد آند بورز المركب أو مؤشر ستاندرد آند بورز 500 الشهري الحقيقي (المعدل تبعا للتضخم)، ارتفاعا بلغ مقداره 3.3 أضعاف منذ القاع الذي بلغته في مارس/آذار 2009. وهذا كفيل بأن يجعل سوق البورصة الأميركية الأغلى في العالم، وفقا لنسبة السعر إلى الأرباح المعدلة دوريا التي طالما أوصيت باستخدامها. ولكن هل هذه الزيادة في الأسعار مبررة أو أننا نشهد فقاعة؟

قد يتصور المرء أن الزيادة مبررة، خاصة وأن أرباح المؤشر ستاندرد آند بورز الفصلية الحقيقية عن السهم الواحد ارتفعت بمقدار 3.8 أضعاف خلال الفترة ذاتها، من الربع الأول من عام 2009 إلى الربع الثاني من عام 2018. الواقع أن زيادة الأسعار كانت أقل قليلا من التساوي مع الأرباح.

بطبيعة الحال، كان عام 2008 عاما غير عادي. ولكن ماذا لو قمنا بقياس نمو الأرباح ليس منذ عام 2008، بل منذ بداية إدارة ترمب في يناير/كانون الثاني 2017؟

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Robert J. Shiller

Writing for PS since 2003
130 Commentaries

Robert J. Shiller, a 2013 Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at Yale University and the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Index of US house prices. He is the author of Irrational Exuberance, Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception (with George Akerlof), and Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events.

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Paul Daley Sep 25, 2018

Timely warning. Corporate earnings have been supported by a changing liability structure that now emphasizes debt much more than previously. That structure only helps, however, when debt is cheap.
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Procyon Mukherjee Sep 25, 2018

Last 18 month build up has been the due to the anticipation of the tax breaks and the full impact of the tax breaks thereafter; the rule changes for repatriation of overseas profit comes on top. This and the stock buy backs which completely gain from the low interest rate differentials is gains not from any great innovation in products and services, but it is just that the financial world has moved the next cycle of rent seeking to the stratosphere.
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Rainer Famulla Sep 25, 2018

"The reason for this confidence is hard to pin down, but....."
Some believe that inflation (partially triggered by the trade war) can do the (nominal) trick of keeping up earnings - assuming otherwise steady conditions.
You add in the penchant for continued stock buy-backs and under favorable conditios , you get "earnings growth".
And then there is the (illusiory or justified?) belief, that a steep stock market decline would have such devastating social consequences, that the FED would step in to halt and reverse it. Japan, Switzerland, Israel and Sweden - among others- all have seen Central Bank interventions in their stock markets fairly recently.
Unless the FED openly disowns this narrative, reckless behavior might continue to feed on itself.
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Josh soffer Sep 24, 2018

Maybe someone could set me straight on something. The S&P 500 PE Ratio, based on twelve month “as reported” earnings, is now at 25.22 . This indicator is different from the Shiller PE, which averages out earnings over a 10 year period. My understanding was that the Shiller PE will show stocks overpriced whenever they diverge from the 10 year earnings average, regardless of how high earnings are currently. By contrast, the twelve month PE would indicate stocks to be fairly valued if over the past 12 months earnings have been as high as stock prices. But that's not what the 12 month PE is now showing. It is indicating prices to be extremely high relative to recent 'as reported' earnings, even thought those earnings have been quite robust. What am I missing?
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هل تبرر الأرباح المبهرة أسعار الأسهم المبهرة في الولايات المتحدة؟

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هل تبرر الأرباح المبهرة أسعار الأسهم المبهرة في الولايات المتحدة؟

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