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¿Terminó la tormenta perfecta de los mercados?

LAGUNA BEACH – A principios de este año, los mercados financieros de todo el mundo tuvieron que navegar una tormenta perfecta: una alteración violenta impulsada por una suma inusual de perturbaciones menores. Un aumento de la volatilidad financiera inquietó a los inversores; las acciones entraron en un sube y baja, del que salieron en un nivel considerablemente menor; los intereses de los bonos públicos se derrumbaron, y los inversores se vieron en la insólita posición de, por una porción cada vez mayor de la deuda pública (casi un tercio del total), tener que pagar por el privilegio de tenerla en cartera.

Cuanto más duren estas perturbaciones, mayor será la amenaza para una economía global que ya se enfrenta a debilidades estructurales, desigualdades en la distribución de ingresos y riqueza, bolsones de endeudamiento excesivo, escasez de demanda agregada e insuficiente coordinación de políticas. Y si bien a los mercados financieros volvió cierta calma, las tres causas de volatilidad persisten sin ninguna reducción significativa.

En primer lugar, un aumento de señales de debilidad económica en China y una serie de errores políticos atípicos en aquel país siguen causando inquietud respecto de la salud general de la economía mundial. Puesto que China es la segunda economía del mundo, no pasó mucho tiempo antes de que los funcionarios europeos redujeran sus propios pronósticos de crecimiento y el Fondo Monetario Internacional revisara a la baja sus expectativas de crecimiento global.

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