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La tempête est-elle finie pour les marchés ?

LAGUNA BEACH – Il y a quelques mois, les marchés financiers du monde entier ont été contraints de naviguer au travers d’une véritable tempête – une perturbation violente alimentée par la fusion inhabituelle de petites perturbations.  La volatilité financière a augmenté, perturbant les investisseurs; les marchés des actions ont joué aux montagnes russes, pour ensuite se stabiliser à des niveaux sensiblement inférieurs; les rendements des obligations d'État ont chuté, et les prêteurs se sont retrouvés dans la position inhabituelle d'avoir à payer pour avoir le privilège de détenir une quantité encore plus importante de dette publique (près d'un tiers du total).

Plus ces perturbations persistaient, plus la menace augmentait pour l’économie mondiale déjà affectée par les faiblesses structurelles, les inégalités de revenu et de richesse, les poches d'endettement excessif, la faiblesse de la demande globale et l’insuffisance de la coordination politique. Or, bien qu’un calme relatif soit revenu sur les marchés financiers, les trois causes de la volatilité n’ont pas franchement disparu.

Tout d'abord, les signes grandissants de faiblesse économique en Chine et une série inhabituelle de faux pas politiques continuent de soulever des inquiétudes concernant la santé globale de l'économie mondiale. Étant donné que la Chine est la deuxième plus grande économie au monde, il n'a pas fallu longtemps pour que les responsables européens baissent leurs propres projections de croissance, ni pour que le Fonds monétaire international révise à la baisse ses prévisions de croissance mondiale.

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