欧盟正发生聚变吗?

被欧盟接纳的前景成为东欧各国实现财政平衡的强大动力-这一过程与欧元开始流通时西欧诸国的反应颇为相似。然而,在这两个进程中,相关国家在起初的财政改善之后,都明显地表现出政治"疲惫"的迹象:在欧元区, 《稳定协议》发生了聚变;在整个东欧,财政预算赤字开始上升。

在捷克共和国,去年的预算赤字攀升至GDP的13%,比1999年增加了3倍。虽然这其中包含了一笔一次性的银行重组成本,但今年的赤字仍会占GDP的6%以上。在波兰,财政赤字也从2001年的2.9%上升到占GDP的近6%。在匈牙利,预算赤字也在2001年达到占GDP的4%之后开始新一轮的攀升。马耳他的预算赤字也占到了GDP的近10%,比2001年上涨了4个百分点。只有巴尔干地区各国似乎还能维持合理的财政政策。

从许多方面看,这一现象不足为奇:一旦政治家们不用再面对欧盟进步的年度报告-及排他主义的威胁-财政放宽的成本也就不再那么高昂了。同时,欧元区的大国们(法国和德国)也自顾不暇,无法对他国的财政政策指手画脚,因而对欧盟各国财政政策的国际性约束也不复存在。的确,在一个国家加入 欧盟以后,这些约束实际上就成了摆设。而要将其作为一种行政规范施加于潜在的新成员国也并非易事。

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