Surévalué, l’euro?

CAMBRIDGE – A Paris ou à Berlin, les prix ne laissent pas de surprendre le touriste américain. Aujourd’hui, le taux de change est au désavantage du touriste, et une chambre d’hôtel, un simple repas ou une chemise pour homme, sont plus chers dans ces villes qu’à New York ou à Chicago. Il faudrait, pour que ces biens et services coûtent le même prix qu’aux Etats-Unis, que l’euro cède autour de 15%, à 1,10 dollar l’euro environ.

Sur la base de cette arithmétique, on a tôt fait de conclure que l’euro est surévalué et que la baisse amorcée en décembre par cette monnaie va sûrement s’accentuer, mais ces conclusions seraient erronées. Certaines perspectives indiquent plutôt que l’euro va certainement repasser à 1,60 dollar, son niveau de 2008.

Trois raisons expliquent les écarts d’appréciation de notre touriste. Première raison, les prix qu’il peut voir sont généralement augmentés du montant de la TVA (taxe sur la valeur ajoutée), appliquée partout en Europe et inexistante aux Etats-Unis. Ôtez le taux de la TVA – ordinairement de 15% ou davantage – et vous retrouvez les prix américains.

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