欧元是否被高估?

坎布里奇 ——

身处巴黎或柏林的美国旅行者,会不断因为当地物价与美国物价相比高到何种程度而感到震惊。以今日的汇率计算,当地酒店客房、简易午餐或男士衬衫的价格都比纽约或芝加哥更高。要想将这些商品与服务的价格拉低到美国的水平,则欧元对美元的比值需要下跌约 15% ,达到 1 欧元兑 1.10 美元左右。

人们很容易从这种代数计算中得出欧元被高估、并且有可能继续其自去年十二月开始的贬值过程的结论。不过这一结论并不正确。着眼于未来,则欧元更有可能重新攀至其曾于 2008 年达到的 1 欧元兑 1.60 美元的水平。

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