Banques : le moment est venu de réformer

MUNICH –  Alors que les différents plans de sauvetage financier commencent à faire sentir leurs effets, les Bourses semblent connaître un début de redressement. Le rapport cours/bénéfice de l'indice S&P500 remonte progressivement vers sa moyenne à long terme de 16, les actions détenues par les banques sont à la hausse et certaines d'entre elles ont commencé à rembourser l'aide fournie par l'Etat.

Mais ainsi que je le souligne dans mon nouveau livre, Kasino-Kapitalismus [Le capitalisme de casino], c'est peut-être la conséquence momentanée de l'attente d'une amélioration plutôt qu'une véritable reprise, car le volume des pertes cachées des banques dans leur bilan est probablement colossal. Selon les dernières estimations du FMI, les pertes relatives aux créances au cours de cette crise atteindront 4050 milliards de dollars au total pour les USA (2700 milliards à eux seuls), le Japon, la zone euro et le Royaume-Uni. Mais selon mes calculs basés sur les données de Bloomberg, en février 2009 ces pertes s'élevaient à seulement 1120 milliards. Autrement dit les trois quarts des pertes sont encore à venir.

C'est une mauvaise nouvelle, notamment pour les USA et la Suisse. Car dans ces deux pays les pertes représentent déjà 53 et 54% du bilan agrégé de leur système bancaire, soit respectivement 4,4% et 15,0% de leur PIB. Les Pays-Bas, le Royaume-Uni et l'Allemagne sont aussi concernés, car ils se trouvent immédiatement derrière dans le classement des pays dont le système bancaire a été le plus secoué par la crise. Leurs pertes représentaient 2,0%, 4,2% et 2,8% respectivement de leur PIB, soit 11%, 16% et 22% des capitaux propres agrégés de leur système bancaire.

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