银行危机结束了吗?

慕尼黑——随着美国各项救市措施陆续出台,股票市场多少有些复苏。标准普尔500市盈率正逐渐攀升到16倍的长期均值。尤其是银行的股价正在回升,一些银行已经成功偿还了一部分政府注入的资本。

但是,就如同我在本人的新书《赌场-资本》中指出的,这些现象只是境况暂时好转,而并非全面复苏。因为银行资产负债表上的隐形亏损可能很大。根据国际货币基金组织最近的估算,在美国、日本、欧元区和英国,债权的总销账金额将达到40.05万亿美元,仅美元这一币种就将占到27万亿美元。

据我对彭博数据的分析,截至2009年2月,全球范围内实际销账的仅为11.2万亿美元。这意味着,在所有必需的销账中,目前只完成了四分之一。

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