«Новая экономика» - очередная фантазия?

Еще совсем недавно говорили, что «новая экономика» отменила все законы экономической гравитации. Согласно прогнозам, биржевой курс, производительность и занятость должны были неуклонно расти. Однако обвал NASDAQ и последовавший за ним всемирный экономический спад заставили многих считать хваленную «IT революцию» очередным спекулятивным пузырем.

Сегодня мы стоим перед вопросом: какую роль будет играть технологическая революция в области обработки данных и передачи информации в долгосрочной перспективе? Можно ли действительно говорить о «новой экономике»? А поскольку хрустального шара у нас нет, то возможны ошибочные предсказания. Тем не менее, мы полагаем, что долгосрочное воздействие на экономику «новой экономики», действительно, будет огромным.

Некоторые технологические новшества изменяют нашу жизнь, но не оказывают длительного эффекта на экономику в целом. Электрификация является хорошим примером вышесказанного. В 1800 году американская семья тратила 4% своего дохода на свечи, лампы, масло и спички. Сегодня на оплату освещения уходит менее 1% дохода, тогда как потребление искусственного освещения в сто раз превышает показатель 19-го века. Действительная цена на освещение упала в тысячу раз за последние два века, однако мы не говорим о «революции в освещении» или о «новой экономике», имея в виду уличные фонари и люминесцентное освещение в офисах и магазинах.

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