,,Nová ekonomika" - módní vlna?

Není to tak dlouho, co se o ,,nové ekonomice" mluvilo jako o jevu popírajícím veškeré zákony ekonomické gravitace: ceny akcií, produktivita i zaměstnanost měly už jít jen nahoru a nikdy neklesnout. Krach burzy NASDAQ a celosvětové hospodářské zpomalení, jež po něm následovalo, přiměly mnohé lidi k úvaze, že ona holedbavá ,,revoluce informačních technologií" nebyla vlastně ničím jiným než další pochybnou bublinou.

Stojíme tedy před následující otázkou: jaký je dlouhodobý význam technologických revolucí v oblasti zpracování dat a komunikací? Dá se opravdu mluvit o ,,nové ekonomice"? Nikdo nemá křišťálovou kouli a nikdo není neomylný. My nicméně soudíme, že dlouhodobý hospodářský dopad ,,nové ekonomiky" bude zřejmě velmi hluboký.

Jsou technologické novinky, které mění náš život, ale nemají trvalejší vliv na ekonomiku jako celek. Dobrým příkladem je revoluce v osvětlovací technice. V roce 1800 vydala americká domácnost 4 procenta svého rozpočtu na svíčky, lampy, olej a zápalky. Dnes na osvětlení vynaloží méně než jedno procento svého rozpočtu, umělého osvětlení ovšem spotřebuje stokrát více. Reálná cena osvětlení za posledních dvě stě let klesla více než tisíckrát, a přesto nemluvíme o ,,osvětlovací revoluci" ani o ,,nové ekonomice" vycházející z pouličního osvětlení a zářivek v obchodech a kancelářích.

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