叙利亚会成为下一副倒下去的多米诺骨牌吗?

伦敦——

随着突尼斯与埃及政权的倒台和街头抗议活动风起云涌于从阿尔及尔到德黑兰等众多城市,现在许多人都在揣摩下一个倒下去的多米诺骨牌会是哪一副。叙利亚的世俗军事独裁统治与已经垮台的突尼斯和埃及政权最为近似,它可能不会是正倒下骨牌中的下一张,但似乎仍然可能是下一副倒下去骨牌中的第一张。

当然,旧的“多米诺骨牌理论”只是强调在国际关系中任何地区的不同国家都相互关联的一种粗略方式。对于今天的阿拉伯世界,一个更好的比喻可能是一副搏杀中的国际象棋,即使挪动棋盘上一个小卒也不可避免地要改变棋盘上所有其他棋子之间的关系。

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