Temple in Seoul, South Korea.

韩国正在成为日本吗?

首尔- 最近,韩国的经济表现令人失望。在经历了40年年均高达7.9%的GDP增长后,2000—2010年平均增长率下降到4.1%,自2011年以来更是只有3%。这让很多人质疑韩国是否正在迈向日本所谓的“失去的几十年”——长期通缩和停滞。这一苗头刚刚开始浮现。

今天的韩国和20年前的日本具有不容否认的相似性。事实上,从经济角度看,不论好坏,韩国常常在日本身后亦步亦趋。在这方面,日本的经验可以拯救韩国——如果韩国领导人将日本经验视为应该规避的教训的话。

日本的乱象根源在于房地产和股票泡沫。1985年的广场协议导致日元升值、损害了日本的出口,因此日本采取了货币扩张刺激内需,结果助长了这些泡沫。20世纪90年代初,泡沫破裂,给私人部门留下了巨大的积压债务。除此之外,日本生产率增长停滞不前、需求疲软、人口快速老龄化,呈现出一片衰败迹象。

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