Une alternance au Pérou ?

Le 9 avril, les Péruviens vont élire leur nouveau président. Lors de ce scrutin, ils devront choisir entre le nationaliste Ollanta Humala Tasso, ancien commandant de l’armée, favorable aux changements économiques et sociaux radicaux, et Lourdes Flores Nano, dont le programme consiste à poursuivre la politique néo-libérale actuelle. Quel que soit le gagnant, sa victoire fera écho à travers toute l’Amérique latine.

La victoire d’Humala confirmerait le déclin des politiques néo-libérales qui ont dominé le continent depuis les années 1980. Quelle stratégie Humala mettrait-il alors en œuvre ? Soutiendrait-il l’axe informel du populiste vénézuélien Hugo Chávez (ancien militaire, également) et d’Evo Morales en Bolivie ou pencherait-il davantage en faveur de l’efficacité administrative combinée à une rhétorique de gauche chère au Brésilien Lula da Silva et à l’Argentin Nestor Kirchner ?

De l’autre côté, la victoire de Flores, tout comme la réélection quasi-certaine d’Alvaro Uribe à la tête de la Colombie en mai prochain, irait à l’encontre de l’apparente tendance anti-américaine et gauchiste qui semble prévaloir en Amérique latine. Flores, la candidate socio-démocrate de la coalition droitière, souhaite poursuivre la politique néo-libérale du président Alejandro Toledo, qui a spectaculairement dynamisé la croissance économique, les investissements étrangers et les exportations au cours des quatre dernières années.

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