Empty gas station at night

Apakah Minyak menjadi “Stranded”?

LONDON – Kebijakan konvensional mengenai terpuruknya harga minyak belakangan ini adalah kita tengah menyaksikan pengulangan krisis tahun 1985-1986 lalu ketika Arab Saudi menggenjot produksinya akibat perselisihan dengan anggota kartel OPEC lainnya. Kali ini, Arab Saudi melakukan tindakan yang sama untuk merespon kehilangan pangsa pasar akibat produksi shale-oil di Amerika Serikat.

Namun ada persamaan lain yang bahkan lebih relevan – yang berdampak besar bagi harga minyak jangka panjang. Krisis ini menjadi pengingat atas kemerosotan yang pernah menimpa harga batubara – jatuh dari ketinggian $140 per ton pada tahun 2008 menjadi harga sekarang $40 per ton – mengakibatkan beberapa deposit menjadi “financially stranded” yang berarti biaya pengembangannya melebihi potensi keuntungan (return).

Penurunan tersebut merupakan konsekuensi dari kebijakan lingkungan jangka panjang, termasuk program-program yang bertujuan memitigasi perubahan iklim, sehingga menurunkan permintaan batubara. Seluruh upaya meningkatkan kualitas udara di Cina, penetapan standar-standar emisi karbon dan merkuri, ketersediaan gas alam yang lebih murah, dan pertumbuhan investasi energi terbarukan telah mengikis pangsa pasar batubara di pasar energi.

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