Empty gas station at night

石油正在搁浅吗

伦敦—传统智慧对近期石油价格暴跌的解释是我们正在重复1985—1986年的崩盘,当时,沙特阿拉伯加大了产量,这是它与其他欧佩克成员国纠纷的一部分。这一观点认为,如今沙特阿拉伯正在做同样的事,以应对因为美国页岩油生产而失去市场份额的局面。

但另一个相似之处更加重要——并且对石油的长期价格存在重大影响。最近的油价暴跌让人想起了煤炭价格崩盘——从2008年每吨140美元的短暂高点下跌到今天的每吨40美元左右——煤炭价格崩盘导致一些煤炭储量“财务搁浅”,即开发它们的成本超过了潜在回报。

煤炭价格下跌的原因是长期环境政策,包括旨在减轻气候变化的措施降低了煤炭需求。中国改善空气质量的努力,美国碳和汞排放标准,更加廉价的天然气,以及不断增加的可再生能源投资都在遏制煤炭在能源市场上的份额。

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