石油正在搁浅吗

Feb 9, 2016 Paul Spedding

伦敦—传统智慧对近期石油价格暴跌的解释是我们正在重复1985—1986年的崩盘，当时，沙特阿拉伯加大了产量，这是它与其他欧佩克成员国纠纷的一部分。这一观点认为，如今沙特阿拉伯正在做同样的事，以应对因为美国页岩油生产而失去市场份额的局面。

但另一个相似之处更加重要——并且对石油的长期价格存在重大影响。最近的油价暴跌让人想起了煤炭价格崩盘——从2008年每吨140美元的短暂高点下跌到今天的每吨40美元左右——煤炭价格崩盘导致一些煤炭储量“财务搁浅”，即开发它们的成本超过了潜在回报。

煤炭价格下跌的原因是长期环境政策，包括旨在减轻气候变化的措施降低了煤炭需求。中国改善空气质量的努力，美国碳和汞排放标准，更加廉价的天然气，以及不断增加的可再生能源投资都在遏制煤炭在能源市场上的份额。

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Nicholas Dutko Feb 11, 2016

I feel that we are screwing ourselves over by having oil so cheap. The big push was to get people to buy more fuel efficient vehicles and with gas being as cheap as it is people are opting for SUV's and more vehicles that are not fuel efficient. Eventually gas will rise again. I think a good price point for a ton of oil is around the $80-$100 mark. People in the oil industry (many many workers) can make money and keep their jobs, it is a slight added expense for us (like a dollar more per gallon), and people will make the switch to a fuel efficient vehicle. It is just common sense and it seems that the Obama administration doesn't have common sense. I am in the auto transport industry ( http://www.autotransportquoteservcies.com ) and the oil being so cheap helps our industry by making fuel cheaper, but it hurts the industry because more people are driving their vehicles instead of transporting because it is cheaper. This cheap oil is not a good thing at all and we are digging ourselves in a hole.
- ron smith Feb 12, 2016
  
  Per barrel rather than per ton? Crude is currently around $1,400 per ton.
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Jose araujo Feb 11, 2016

I have troubles believing this explanation, since when the capacity was being built the commodity prices was going up with no signs of decreasing.

I'm much more inclined to think we lived a long period of market cornering and fixing under the excuse of China's development.

If we look into the European gas situation, is clear that the oil companies had some king of arrangement that divided the territory between companies, that's why there are so few brands operating on the European markets without any reasonable explanation.
- ron smith Feb 12, 2016
  
  Oligopoly plus (large bank & hedge fund) near-corners in the futures market sent oil to the hideous prices we saw a short while back. That China could and would pay the asking price didn't help, either.
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Marc Johnson Feb 11, 2016

https://medium.com/@marcjohnson/the-trillion-dollar-renewable-energy-investment-deficit-no-one-is-talking-about-751c79d5521c#.z24yqz3j7
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Steve Hurst Feb 10, 2016

Am I supposed to feel sorry for somebody. Please remind me. Thnx

PS Oil has uses other than just burning and can stay in the ground a bit longer, after all its been there quite a while
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Michael Public Feb 10, 2016

Another possibility: the banks who allowed borrowing against oil in the ground are stranded. Tell your pals not to worry at HSBC because it is not their money they lent out and the muppets will bail them out again - just like in 2008.
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Petey Bee Feb 9, 2016

2 more differences w/ thermal coal:

1. To an extent, you can substitute natgas, so thermal coal waas more elastic in the short term
1b. since thermal coal prices respond to the natgas market, the peculiarities of that market (namely, pipelines, limited storage, roadblocks to connecting markets over continental distances) are brought in
2. cost of transport is the biggest part of the cost of both thermal coal and its major substitute, natgas

oil/petroleum is smoother in comparison, and also less abundant.
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