Politics

هل الحرب النووية حتمية؟

Sep 5, 2022 Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

كمبريدج ــ كان غزو روسيا لأوكرانيا وتهديداتها بشن حرب ضد الغرب من الأسباب التي أدت إلى إحياء جدال قديم حول الأسلحة النووية. في العام المنصرم، عندما دخلت معاهدة الأمم المتحدة لحظر مثل هذه الأسلحة حيز التنفيذ، لم تكن أي من الدول التسع الحائزة للأسلحة النووية في العالم بين الدول الموقعة الست والثمانين. ولكن كيف تبرر هذه الدول امتلاك أسلحة تعرض البشرية بأسرها للخطر؟

هذا سؤال بالغ الأهمية، ولكن من الأهمية بمكان أيضا أن نضع في اعتبارنا سؤالا آخر بجانبه: إذا وقعت الولايات المتحدة على المعاهدة ودمرت ترسانتها، فهل تظل قادرة على ردع المزيد من العدوان الروسي في أوروبا؟ إذا كانت الإجابة بالنفي، فيتعين علينا أن ننظر أيضا في ما إذا كانت الحرب النووية حتمية لا فكاك منها.

الواقع أن هذا التساؤل ليس جديدا. في عام 1960، استنتج العالِم والروائي البريطاني سي. بي. سنو أن اندلاع حرب نووية في غضون عقد من الزمن "يقين حسابي". ربما كان ذلك من قبيل المبالغة، لكن كثيرين كانوا يعتقدون أن نبوءة سنو ستصبح مبررة إذا نشبت حرب في غضون قرن من الزمن. في ثمانينيات القرن العشرين، ردد الناشطون المنادون بالتجميد النووي مثل هيلين كالديكوت كلمات سنو في التحذير بأن تراكم الأسلحة النووية "من شأنه أن يجعل الحرب النووية يقينا حسابيا".

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

Yoshimichi Moriyama Sep 16, 2022

Masamichi Inoki, professor of Kyoto University, was quite at rest during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. He was not at all worried, very much convinced from his good knowledge of Russian national character and Russian foreign policy that Khrushchev's ships would turn around before the Kennedy's quarantine lines.
Masatak Kosaka, professor of the University, said the foreign policy of the Kremlin was conservative, not revolutionary or adventurous, principally concerned with maintaining the status quo; they wanted to hold the Eastern European countries as the essential buffer zone for Russian national security.
( I would like interested readers here to read my or Michi's comment, It Is Not China's Fault, posted on November 16, 2015, on Michael Pillsbury, The Hundred-Year Marathon, amazon usa.)

The nuclear deterrence theories are composed not of mathematics or of logics but of propositions (sentences concerning facts or supposed, imaginary facts), which are derived from the US's actual experiences with Russia.
If the US had faced China instead of Russia, and had to devise deterrence theories I doubt if it could have established ones or if it had the theories would have been somthing very different. China is different in national character from Russia. It has had throughout its histroy the Middle Kingdom consciousness, which Russia does not have. Russia has had admiration, for the West, coming from its inferiority complex. Beijing wants to topple the US-led international order, trying to supersede it with the China-led one.
- Yoshimichi Moriyama Sep 18, 2022
  
  "Paradoxically, reducing the probability of an all-out catastrophe...."
  One proposition of reducing the probability of an all-out catastrophe between the West and Russia is that we learn to accept some desires of Russia and live partly contented and partly discontented with them.
  
  The West is forfeiting Russian cooperation in serious matters like combatting the climate change, non-proliferation in the Middle East, North Korean denuclearization, food shortage, or clean water scarcity.
  
  Typo: Not Masatak → Masataka
  Michi's comment was posted on November 17, 2015, not November 16.
  Both Inoki and Kosaka met with Georege F. Kennan on his 1964 visit.
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Dawood Mamoon Sep 7, 2022

Dear Professor Joseph Nye,

Being a Pakistani academic and who has done some emprircal and theoretical research on Pakistan India conflict resolution, and as an economist I have discussed the dynamic of nuclear war in a contextual setting. My argument is that nuclear capability does create deterrence. However, talking about nuclear war by any party where use of nuclear arsenal is mentioned is more an outcome of sheer cowardice because nuclear war is not fought on a battlefield but it involves civilian populations. In the first place there should not be weapons of mass destruction and the question whether nuclear capability help avert war or cause conflict needs to be understood. Though the article is about the probability in the long run of a nuclear war because of the possession of the capability and the risks humanity at large would face from the risk. If the countries go to war because of economic interest or certain religious or political ideology, then world leaders and the global power hubs including US, EU, Russia and China should work on common interests with prosperity stretched to every region and continent and in a fair manner. This makes SDGs the most important initiative of 21st century. Regarding threatening other countries of nuclear option in case of conflict should not be encouraged and international politics and economics should adhere to certain common human values irrespective of cultural, political or religious differences to shun any country to suggest the possibility of a nuclear option on another country should be translated it as biggest cowardice rather than strategic superiority over other countries.
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Jonathan Engel Sep 7, 2022

I'm sure the fine fellow who wrote this article has massive experience in Game Theory, and fully understands the issues of deterrence.... BUT I note that the single most dangerous nuclear weapon situation on the planet gets no mention, and I am of course talking about Iran.

Of course the same logic of Game Theory doesn't apply to Iran for a number of reasons: A/ They have a "millennial cultist" government which refers to their special relationship with their God. B/ They are living a probably terminal demographic collapse, which means that their capacity to be actors on the world scene is doing to decline quite fast, meaning that they have the "choice" of going out with a bang or a whimper. C/ Their social system is based on a consuming hatred for all their neighbours, plus Israel and the US who are hate figures straight out of the Orwellian dystrophy of "1984".
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alex Finch Sep 5, 2022

A nuclear war would be automatic suicide for the country foolish enough to be the first to use nuclear weapons. This is why dictatorships are an existential threat for everyone. Moscow and St Petersburg would be wiped out, while Putin and his cronies spend the following years in isolated bunkers stocked with food and provisions a thousand miles away. Russians need to wakeup.
- P. Kamath Sep 5, 2022
  
  Alex: The whole scenario you paint here may turn out to be just speculative! Agreed.that using a nuke on another nuke-armed nation would be just suicidal
  But, it is quite possible that a powerful nuke powered nation might use it on a weaker non-nuked one. Under those conditions, do you think anyone would risk their neck in the ensuing madness. There would be abundant protest and condemnations and .all will tapered down and ultramarely forgotten!
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Peter McLoughlin Sep 5, 2022

The pattern of history says it is. Every great power in history has eventually faced the war it was seeking to avoid – its own collapse – yet was convinced this would not happen. Everyone wants to avoid nuclear war.
https://patternofhistory.wordpress.com/
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هل الحرب النووية حتمية؟

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