¿Es inevitable la guerra en Oriente Medio?

BERLÍN – Fuad Siniora, ex Primer Ministro del Líbano, es un hombre reflexivo y con una profunda experiencia de la política de Oriente Medio. Por eso, cuando habla de “trenes sin conductor que parecen correr hacia una colisión”, como hizo recientemente en una reunión privada en Berlín, las partes interesadas probablemente deban prepararse para acontecimientos no deseados. Desde luego, nadie en la región llama a la guerra, pero está aumentando un estado de ánimo prebélico.

Cuatro factores, ninguno de ellos nuevo, pero todos ellos desestabilizadores por sí solos, están agravándose mutuamente: falta de esperanza, políticas gubernamentales peligrosas, un vacío de poder regional y falta de una mediación exterior activa.

Puede ser tranquilizador que la mayoría de los palestinos e israelíes sigan siendo partidarios de una solución con dos Estados. Menos tranquilizador es que la mayoría de los israelíes y una gran mayoría de los palestinos hayan perdido la esperanza de que dicha solución se materialice alguna vez. A ello se suma que en septiembre expirará la suspensión parcial de los asentamientos, que el Gobierno de Israel ha aceptado, y también habrá concluido el período fijado por la Liga Árabe para las llamadas conversaciones de proximidad entre los palestinos y los israelíes, sin que hayan comenzado en serio.

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