Krieg im Nahen Osten – unvermeidlich?

BERLIN – Der ehemalige Ministerpräsident des Libanon, Fuad Siniora, ist ein nachdenklicher Mann mit einer profunden Erfahrung in Sachen Nahost-Politik. Wenn er also wie vor kurzem bei einem privaten Treffen in Berlin von „führerlosen Zügen auf Kollisionskurs“ spricht, dann sollten die Betroffenen vielleicht vor ungewollten Entwicklungen auf der Hut sein. Natürlich fordert niemand in der Region einen Krieg, aber es ist eine wachsende Vorkriegs-Stimmung spürbar.

Vier Faktoren bestärken einander, keiner von ihnen ist neu, aber jeder einzelne von ihnen hat bereits eine destabilisierende Wirkung: Hoffnungslosigkeit, gefährliche Politik seitens der Regierungen, ein regionales Machtvakuum und die Abwesenheit von aktiver Vermittlung von außen.

Es mag zwar beruhigend sein, dass die meisten Palästinenser und Israelis noch immer für eine Zwei-Staaten-Lösung sind. Aber es ist durchaus weniger beruhigend, dass die große Mehrheit der Palästinenser die Hoffnung verloren hat, eine solche Lösung werde je Realität. Damit nicht genug, läuft im September der teilweise Siedlungsstopp aus, den die israelische Regierung akzeptiert hat und damit auch die Frist der Arabischen Liga für indirekte Friedensgespräche zwischen Palästinensern und Israelis, die gar nicht ernsthaft begonnen wurden.

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