La guerre au Moyen-Orient est-elle inévitable ?

BERLIN – L'ancien Premier ministre libanais Fouad Siniora est un homme avisé qui a une grande expérience de la politique au Moyen-Orient. Aussi quand il parle de "trains sans conducteur qui foncent vers une collision", ainsi qu'il l'a fait récemment lors d'une rencontre privée à Berlin, on se dit que les parties concernées devraient se préparer à une situation difficile. Certes, personne dans la région n'appelle à la guerre, mais une ambiance d'avant-guerre s'installe.

Quatre facteurs se combinent, dont aucun n'est nouveau mais qui ont chacun un caractère déstabilisant : le manque d'espoir, des politiques gouvernementales dangereuses, le vide au niveau du pouvoir régional et l'absence de véritable médiation externe.

Il est peut-être rassurant que la grande majorité des Palestiniens et des Israéliens soit favorable à la solution qui prévoit l'établissement de deux Etats, mais il est inquiétant de constater qu'ils ne croient plus à sa matérialisation. Ajoutons à cela que la période de gel partiel des colonies qui avait été acceptée par le gouvernement israélien s'achève en septembre et que la période fixée par la Ligue arabe pour un "dialogue de proximité" entre Palestiniens et Israéliens, dialogue qui n'a jamais vraiment commencé, va elle aussi s'achever.

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