中东战争是不可避免吗?

柏林——黎巴嫩前总理福阿德·西尼乌拉是一位在中东事务中有着丰富经验的深谋远虑的政治家。 因此当他不久前在柏林举行的一次私人会议上说出“行驶在相撞轨迹上的没有驾驶员的列车”时,所有利益相关方或许应当为出乎意料的事态发展做好准备。 当然,中东地区没有人想要打仗。 但一种大战将至的情绪却正在滋长。

虽然都算不上新问题,但四大不稳定因素的作用正在相互叠加: 缺少希望、危险的政府政策、地区权力真空和积极外部调解努力的缺乏。

令人感到欣慰的是多数巴勒斯坦人和以色列人仍然支持两国并存的解决方案。 但让人不太放心的是多数以色列人和绝大部分巴勒斯坦人已经丧失了解决方案终将实现的希望。 而且以色列政府已经接受的部分冻结定居点的政策到今年9月即将结束,而阿拉伯联盟设定的巴勒斯坦和以色列举行所谓近距离间接会谈的期限也将届满,而会谈的举行还看不出任何眉目,这些都令中东局势雪上加霜。

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