Cina: salari bassi addio?

PECHINO – Negli ultimi tempi i giornali abbondano di notizie relative alla penuria di manodopera, alle rivendicazioni salariali ed agli aumenti di stipendio per i lavoratori migranti in Cina – notizie che naturalmente destano preoccupazione, o prospettano una possibile fine in Cina dei benefici legati al basso costo della manodopera.

Mi auguro davvero che il vantaggio comparato della Cina in quanto produttrice a basso costo scompaia – prima avviene, meglio è. Perché io, un economista cinese, dovrei quindi desiderare una riduzione della competitività cinese e un aumento dei costi della manodopera? Dopotutto, quando un paese è carente in reali benefici come maggiore istruzione, mercati ed aziende efficienti, e non è in grado di innovarsi, necessita di qualcosa come i salari bassi per mantenere la crescita.

Pur rappresentando un fattore chiave di elevata crescita negli ultimi tre decenni, la manodopera a basso costo ha anche contribuito a generare profonde disparità di reddito, soprattutto negli ultimi anni. E un’ineguaglianza persistente e diffusa potrebbe causare crisi sociali volte a interrompere la crescita e a danneggiare la competitività. La Cina deve evitare questo scenario, e qualora vi sia un aumento significativo dei salari, questo starebbe a indicare che l’economia potrebbe finalmente raggiungere la fase successiva dello sviluppo, che prevede la riduzione delle disparità di reddito.

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