Přestává být Čína zemí nízkých mezd?

PEKING – Poslední dobou se hojně vyskytují zprávy o nedostatku pracovních sil, sporech o mzdy a zvyšování mezd pro migrující dělníky v Číně. Ty pochopitelně posilují obavy či očekávání, že výhody Číny pramenící z nízkých mzdových nákladů se možná rozplývají.

Já chovám naději, že se čínská komparativní výhoda producenta s nízkými mzdovými náklady rozplyne – a čím dřív, tím líp. Proč bych si ale já, čínský ekonom, měl přát, aby rostoucí mzdové náklady snížily konkurenční schopnost Číny? Vždyť když určitá země postrádá skutečné výhody, například vyšší vzdělávání, efektivní trhy a podniky a inovační schopnost, potřebuje něco jako nízké mzdy, aby si zachovala růst.

Levná pracovní síla sice byla v posledních třech desítkách let klíčovým faktorem tvorby vysokého růstu, ale přispívá také k hlubokým příjmovým disparitám, zejména v posledních letech. A neustálá, bobtnající nerovnost by mohla zapříčinit sociální krize, jež by mohly zpřetrhat růst a narušit konkurenční schopnost. Takovému scénáři se Čína musí vyhnout, a kdyby mzdy dokázaly smysluplně povyrůst, ukazovalo by to, že ekonomika snad konečně dospívá do další fáze vývoje, během níž se příjmové disparity zúží.

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