Les liquidités suffisent-elles ?

Chaque semaine, des liquidités sont injectées dans le système bancaire mondial par la Réserve fédérale des Etats-Unis et par la Banque centrale européenne. Le taux d’intérêt moyen payé pour les réserves au jour le jour aux Etats-Unis est largement en dessous des 5,25 % annuels que la Fed prétend avoir pour objectif.

Le marché des réserves au jour le jour semble désormais être divisé en trois segments. Les banques réputées saines peuvent emprunter à des taux beaucoup plus faibles que 5,25%, tandis que les banques confrontées à d’éventuels problèmes de liquidité – censées pouvoir emprunter à 5,25% – empruntent à la Fed elle-même à 5,75%. C’est le cas de quelques grosses banques qui souhaitent plus de liquidités mais ne pensent pas les obtenir sans perturber le marché.

Cette différence entre les taux pratiqués pour les « banques réglementées » sur les marchés financiers est le signe d’une rupture potentielle. Jusqu’ici, les suppléments sont faibles : pour un emprunt au jour le jour de 100 millions USD, même un simple écart d’un point de pourcentage du taux d’intérêt ne représente que 3000 USD. Cette situation montre qu’il est fort probable que le marché soit voué à une véritable crise financière, assortie de son lot de faillites, notamment bancaires. Cependant, en temps normal, ce type de supplément est totalement absent.

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