L'actualité de Keynes

Depuis toujours, l'économie de marché connaît des phases de croissance et des crises. Les économies capitalistes ne s'autorégulent pas : selon Keynes, le marché conduit peut-être à long terme au plein emploi, mais à long terme nous serons tous morts . Keynes a prescrit une thérapeutique claire pour les temps de crise : une politique monétaire et budgétaire volontariste. Il estimait que la politique budgétaire joue un rôle crucial quand la politique monétaire risque d'être inefficace.

Dans les économies développées, la théorie de Keynes est à la base de la prévision et de la politique économique. Parce que les solutions préconisées par Keynes fonctionnent, les phases de croissance y sont plus longues, les récessions plus courtes et moins prononcées. Certes, tant la théorie que sa mise en oeuvre ont été affinées. La théorie de l'information asymétrique est l'un des microéléments les plus importants à la base de la macroéconomie moderne. Mais certaines des idées keynésiennes les plus simples et les plus importantes formulées bien avant cette théorie - par exemple l'idée qu'une baisse d'impôt temporaire risque d'être inefficace, alors qu'une politique de soutien aux investissements est un instrument hautement efficace - gardent toute leur valeur.

Nous pouvons tirer des enseignements aussi bien des succès que des échecs économiques . Quand le FMI a imposé des coupes drastiques sur les dépenses en Asie de l'Est, la production des pays de cette région s'est écroulée, conformément à la théorie de Keynes.

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