Je keynesiánská ekonomie mrtvá?

Od samých počátků kapitalismu je tržní ekonomika vystavena vlivům fluktuací, konjunktur a krachů. Kapitalistické ekonomiky nejsou samopřizpůsobivé: tržní síly by možná jednou přinesly ekonomiku s plnou zaměstnaností, jak tvrdil Keynes, ale to už z dlouhodobého pohledu budeme všichni dávno po smrti . Keynes navrhl pro těžká hospodářská období jasná řešení: měnovou a daňovou politiku. O daňové politice soudil, že je zvlášť důležitá v situacích, kdy měnová politika nemá valnou naději na úspěch.

V rozvinutých ekonomikách je keynesiánská ekonomie alfou a omegou ekonomických prognóz a tvorby politiky. Období rozmachu jsou delší a poklesy mělčejší a kratší, poněvadž keynesiánské recepty fungují. Jistě, teorie i praxe se s dobou vyvíjely a zdokonalovaly. Teorie asymetrické informace je zdrojem většiny mikrozákladů moderní makroekonomiky. Ovšem některé z nejprostších a nejdůležitějších pouček, jež byly formulovány dávno před tím, než se ony mikrozáklady etablovaly - jako třeba fakt, že dočasná snížení daně z příjmů nefungují, zatímco dočasné investiční daňové dobropisy dokáží dělat divy - jsou dnes stejně platné jako kdysi.

Učíme se jak z neúspěchů hospodářských politik, tak z jejích úspěchů. Když si Mezinárodní měnový fond ve východní Asii prosadil významné výdajové škrty, produkce v těchto zemích klesla - přesně podle keynesiánské teorie.

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