Dean Rohrer

¿Irak ya es seguro?

WASHINGTON, DC – La decisión de la administración Obama de retirar el grueso de las tropas estadounidenses de Irak en los próximos 19 meses alimentó los temores de que Irak vuelva a hundirse en la violencia a gran escala y debilitante que padeció entre 2004 y 2007. Esos temores, en su mayoría, son exagerados. Existen buenas razones para creer que el nivel de estabilidad alcanzado en Irak se puede mantener incluso sin una presencia norteamericana a gran escala.

Para entender por qué, es importante saber qué más estaba pasando dentro de Irak en 2007, cuando el presidente George W. Bush ordenó la "oleada" de 20.000 tropas adicionales y el general David H. Petraeus viró las fuerzas norteamericanas hacia una estrategia más agresiva. Ya que, si bien la oleada fue importante, otros dos factores jugaron un papel crítico a la hora de retrotraer a Irak del borde del precipicio.

En primer lugar, Bagdad se había transformado en una ciudad dominada por los chiítas. Aunque es difícil encontrar estadísticas exactas, en 2003 aproximadamente el 35% de la población de Bagdad era sunita. Hoy, en base a los resultados de la elección regional llevada a cabo recientemente, Bagdad es apenas entre un 10% y un 15% sunita. Esto significa que entre un millón y un millón y medio de sunitas huyeron de la capital. Hoy, la mayoría son refugiados en Jordania y Siria, y es poco probable que sean bien recibidos en breve por la nueva elite chiíta que gobierna el país.

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