Dean Rohrer

Ist der Irak inzwischen sicher?

WASHINGTON, D.C.: Die Entscheidung der Regierung Obama, in den kommenden 19 Monaten den Großteil ihrer Truppen aus dem Irak abzuziehen, hat Befürchtungen ausgelöst, dass das Land einmal mehr in jene weit verbreitete, lähmende Gewalt abstürzen könnte, die es in den Jahren 2004-2007 durchlitt. Diese Befürchtungen sind größtenteils übertrieben. Es gibt gute Gründe für die Annahme, dass das inzwischen im Irak erreichte Maß an Stabilität selbst ohne umfassende US-Präsenz aufrecht erhalten werden kann.

Um dies zu verstehen, ist es wichtig, zu erkennen, was 2007 – als Präsident George W. Bush die Aufstockung der Truppen um 20.000 Mann befahl und General David H. Petraeus den US-Streitkräften eine aggressivere Strategie verpasste – im Irak sonst noch passierte. Denn obwohl die Truppenaufstockung wichtig war, spielten noch zwei andere Faktoren eine entscheidende Rolle dabei, das Land vom Rande des Abgrunds zurückzuholen.

Zunächst einmal war Bagdad in eine schiitisch dominierte Stadt verwandelt worden. Zwar sind genaue Statistiken schwer zu beschaffen, doch waren 2003 etwa 35% der Bevölkerung Baghdads Sunniten. Legt man die kürzlich abgehaltenen Regionalwahlen zugrunde, dürften es heute lediglich 10% bis 15% sein. Dies bedeutet, dass zwischen einer und anderthalb Millionen Sunniten aus der Hauptstadt geflohen sind. Die meisten halten sich heute als Flüchtlinge in Jordanien und Syrien auf, und es ist kaum anzunehmen, dass die den Irak nun beherrschende schiitische Elite sie in naher Zukunft wieder in der Heimat willkommen geheißen wird.

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