Dean Rohrer

L’Irak est-il enfin sûr�?

WASHINGTON DC – La décision de l’administration Obama de retirer le gros des troupes américaines d’Irak au cours des 19 prochains mois éveille la crainte que l’Irak ne replonge dans la violence débilitante à grande échelle qu’il a subie de 2004 à 2007. Ces peurs sont pour la plupart exagérées. De bonnes raisons laissent penser que le niveau de stabilité atteint en Irak peut être maintenu, même sans une présence américaine à grande échelle.

Pour comprendre pourquoi, il faut savoir ce qu’il se passait d’autre en Irak en 2007, quand le président George W. Bush a ordonné le “déferlement” de 20�000�soldats supplémentaires et que le général David H. Petraeus a orienté les forces américaines vers une stratégie plus agressive. Car, même si ce déferlement était de taille, deux autres facteurs ont joué un rôle crucial dans le recul de l’Irak du bord du précipice.

Premièrement, Bagdad était devenue une ville dominée par les chiites. Bien qu’il soit difficile d’obtenir des statistiques exactes, en 2003 environ 35% des Bagdadiens étaient sunnites. Aujourd’hui, à en croire les résultats des élections régionales récentes, Bagdad n’est plus sunnite qu’à 10% ou 15%. Cela signifie qu’entre 1�million et 1,5�million de sunnites ont fui la capitale. La plupart sont aujourd’hui réfugiés en Jordanie et en Syrie, et il est fort peu probable que la nouvelle élite chiite qui dirige désormais le pays les accueille à bras ouvert dans un futur proche.

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