Dean Rohrer

伊拉克安全了吗?

华盛顿特区-奥巴马政府决定在今后19个月内撤离在伊拉克的大部分驻军,这一决定引发了人们对伊拉克重现大规模破坏性暴力事件的担忧,这样的暴力事件从2004年至2007年间一直困扰着伊拉克。而这些担心大都是过分的。我们有足够理由相信,即使没有大范围的美国驻军,伊拉克也能维持至今已取得的稳定局势。

要理解这样说的原因,很重要的是要知道,在2007年美国总统布什下令急速增派二万名美国士兵进驻伊拉克以及戴维·彼得雷乌斯将军把美军的战略调整为更具进攻性时,伊拉克国内到底还发生了其它什么事情。因为,尽管增派部队显示了其重要性,而另有二个因素也起了重要作用,挽救了伊拉克于悬崖边上。

首先,巴格达已经成了一个什叶派人占主导的城市。尽管准确的数据很难取得,但2003年巴格达的居民中逊尼派人占了大约35%。而如今,根据最近举行的地区选举统计结果,巴格达只有10%至15%的居民是逊尼派人。这意味着有一百万至一百五十万逊尼派人离开了首都巴格达。现在他们大部分成了约旦和叙利亚的难民。近期内,在国内掌权的什叶派新精英分子不会欢迎他们回去。

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